Posted by Eden Prairie Viking on 10/5/2009, 5:10 pm
The biggest advantage for the Vikngs vs the Packers is the Dline vs their Oline. The difference in talent between the two should be enough to greatly alter the Packer offensive effectiveness. There are other advantages, but none as great as this one.
Vikes Dline vs Packers Oline
The Oline of the Packers have given up a league leading 12 sacks in 3 games. At this pace they will be giving up 64 sacks in one season! The vikings have one of the best front fours and front sevens in the league and have tallied 8 sacks. All of those sacks are not the fault line with some of them being the fact a-rod holds onto the ball too long. The biggest problem initially seemed to be barbre, the RT, but with the injury to clifton, the LT has also struggled. Even with Clifton in the lineup, he gave up a sack to Odom before his injury. Obviously, Jared will have an advantage vs the LT, he got a safety vs. Clifton last year. Even if Clifton goes, he will probably not be at 100%. Colledge is completely over matched vs Allen (Jared has force 18 fumbles in his career and has a very good strip sack move-could be a factor in the game). Ray Edwards has been playing very well this year. I will not be surprised if he gets some hits on A-rod with a sack in the mix. The ends should be disruptive vs the pack.
The interior of the packers line is also affected by the injury to Clifton. They end up putting wells at center, move over spitz to LG and kick out Colledge. Wells at center has shown to be a clear match up advantage for whoever he goes against. The wall has dominated the interior of the Packers line in the past and I expect more of the same. It will interesting to see if Robison and Guion can make some hay on this group in substitutions.
The Packers running offense has been hindered by the inability of the line to move the line of scrimmage. The packers are averaging a respectable 106 yards a game at 4.1 clip. This stat is misleading. Without the running of A-rod during passing downs, 15 att for 88 yards a 5.9 average, the packers are averaging 76 yards a game 3.6 yards per carry. This mirrors their "stud" running back Grant 56 att 206 yards at 3.7 y/c. Clearly not a threat to a team that has led the league in run defense for 3 straight years. However, Grant has run well against us in the past. In 2008, grant ran @home 12 carries for 92 years and @dome 16 carries 75 yards at 4.7 y/c. In 2007, @dome 3 caries 17 yards at 5.7 and 25 for 117 for 4.7 y/c. So, despite an edge on paper, Grant has been able to have some success against our run defense. I do believe that has a lot to do with the Vikings concern about the stopping the pass.
I didn't see the rams game, but from what i read, they claimed A-rod was getting "happy feet". That is good to hear. I hope he thinks he hears footsteps when they aren't even there. The key is to hit him hard and often as we did last time at the dome that completely made him ineffective. I wonder if Allen can get another safety on the a-rod with his poor pocket awareness.
Vikes Running game vs Packers Run D
Adrian has been Adrian vs the packers. In 2008, he continued his attack on the @pack by going 19att 103yrds 5.4y/c and at home he carried the team. He ran 30 times for 192 yards at 6.4 y/c. The pack switched to the 3-4 in part to get better against the run. They have improved in one area and that is in yards per carry at 3.9 vs 5 in 2008. But, when you give up a buck fifty against cedric Benson, all is not well in the run defense. I expect another good game if they stick to the run but they will be fired up early on and I expect some tough sledding. I expect he will wear them down and if can get to the 25 carries, he will be over 150 yards.
They have some beef on the line with picket, jenkins, and Jolly (with Raji getting 30 snaps). However, against an average line like the bengals these guys were pushed back or neutralized fairly easily. With our jumbo sized tackles, going against a beefy 3-4 is not really that much of an advantage. Our guys struggle against the quick 260 speedsters not the slower and bigger DEs. I actually think if they'd go with a 4-3 they'd be better off with raji playing the 3 technique DT and Kamp playing RE. But hey, they have the "genius" dom Capers so start trembling...Actually, I liked gregg williams better and I'm glad they go Dom instead. Williams has a track record of turning hamburger into steak.
According the online packer communitee their is a belief the packers have been saving it for this game and are going to unleash their full might like in preseason. Don't believe me, check out some packer message boards. You will see this cropping up with the packers "brain trust" holding back just for this game. Hehe...gotta love the homer packer fans, they are a riot.
Vikings Passing game vs Packers pass defense
What are you crazy? No, i'm not insane or at least i'm not certified as such. I think we have 3 key edges and they aren't wide receivers. Shankdog should feast on this defense. I think he can work the middle of the field and find some space. I don't think their backers are fast enough or the safety big enough to contain the shank. Also, Chester Taylor should be able to lose any of their linebackers. Last week, he put a move on patrick willis that was just sick on a pass route. Though, willis with his 4.40 speed caught up to him 30 yards later. The packers LBs are not nearly as talented. Finally, Harvin should have some catches vs this defense. The only one who is quick enough to stay with him is woodson but he is faster than woodson. I don't think the packers put woodson on him though. Anyone else, he will make them look foolish. I hope the Vikings let him have 10 touches at least vs the pack.
Special teams
Too bad d-rey appears unready to go. But this is clear edge for us in the return game. When was the last time we could say that? The packers have struggled this year in that area. Harvin time for some more majic. The packers punter is inconsistent. Hopefully we get the 35 yard line drive effort. Their kicker is not clutch like longwell and that could be a factor in the game.
Weaknesses
Packers Opass vs Vikings pass defense
Slam dunk right...wrong. Thanks to the improvement with cedric Griffen, the wide receiver advantage is not as great as in the past. However, with 3 wR, their could be a problem vs Jordy. Also, The TE position gave us a lot of trouble last year and has continued to be a difficulty for us this year by giving almost 100 yards to Vernon Davis (though he finally looks to be living up to his potential). However, the packers have yet to establish their TE. Could this be the game where they Finnley finally lives up to the hype. I would like to see tighter coverage to take away the quick passing and make Rodgers have to sit in the pocket waiting for a WR to get open. Should be a fun chess match. I give Frazier the edge vs the pass happy MM. The vikings have looked better but the competition has not really had a top notch pass offense. I think the packers are a top 5 type pass offense, even if they haven't showed it so far. Let's keep it that way.
Oline vs packers pressure D
Well, this is theoretical. The packers really haven't gotten as much pressure as advertised. The vikings have given up 9 sacks though. They have let Favre get hit more than i am confortable with-Part has been on the line, some on the back, the rest on Favre holding the ball too long. if they can isolate their speed backers on our big tackles they may be able to make some hay. However, kampman on the outside isn't really about speed but about techique (I chuckle when you change your scheme leaving your best dlineman as ineffective). I really like kampman as a player but this change really hurt his game and will end up costing him millions.
I don't think either the packers or the Vikings have played up to their potential. Whoever does, may win this big. HOwever, if they continue to play at the level we have seen so far i expect it to be a close one. I expect they both are going to continue to work the kinks out. Remember, this is basically like Favre ending his training camp with the team.
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