Posted by deanna on October 10, 2009, 11:38 am
187.146.118.185
Woke to a really fabulous day with skies scrubbed
clean by two days of rain. However, stalled low pressure to the southwest may bring more rain today (Invest 92). CNA's 9 AM report predicts
heavy rain and variable winds. Here's the latest
from NHC:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 18N106W HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRES HAD DIED ALMOST ENTIRELY SEVERAL HOURS AGO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORM REFORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHERE SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ARE CONVERGING WITH NW WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A 0130Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN ALL QUADRANTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR THE LOW HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE NE...REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER DRY WESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS SHUNTING THE MAIN MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND KEEPING THE LOW
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NW TO N TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MIGRATE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD OVER WHETHER THE LOW WILL DEVELOP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT THAT THE LOW MAY FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SHIFTS NW TO N. AT ANY RATE...INTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IF CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM REDEVELOPS.
It will be interesting to see how accurate this
turns out to be.
Our 3 day rainfall total was 3.03 inches. High
temp yesterday was 82F/27.8C (positively chilly!)
but humidity was in the mid 70's all day. Cool
but sticky - weird. Mas tarde.....
208
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