Posted by deanna on October 12, 2009, 8:29 am
187.146.118.176
Yesterday brought gusty winds out of the southwest
most of the day but no rain until around 11 PM.
Total rain overnight, which continued until just before daylight, was .64 inches. CNA predicts
heavy rain and high waves along the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit today. TS Patricia will pass through this latitude late today so this is probably an accurate forecast for
La Manzanilla.
From the latest EPAC Weather Discussion:
...TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED AT 18.6N 108.9W OR ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PATRICIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING WEST. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NE SIDE OF AN AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION...EXTENDING 180 NM TO THE SW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 04Z INDICATED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE STORM CENTER AND THE MEXICAN COAST 16N TO 22N. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS STORM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
This is not a very powerful storm and it's not
expected to strengthen into a hurricane, so other
than more rain and some higher-than-normal wave
action it shouldn't be much of a threat to L.M.
330
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