One lesson of the 'war on terror' years is how good the western intel agencies are. They were all over 9-11, and they called the Afghan war for the Taliban around 10 years before the fall of Kabul.
IDF spokesman compared this to Pearl Harbour..so i guess we are on the New 'New Pearl Harbour'..(another one they were all over.)
Powerful factions inside and outside the conflict zone and on both sides wanted escalation and got it via pograms, mosque attack and now this.
My guess is that both sides are acutely aware of military/economic crisis in nato. 'Israeli' side presumably feel the clock ticking on the greater israel project as the hegemon declines. On the 'Palestinian' side they may think that the only army nato can field getting obliterated on the russian steppe changed the game. Weaponised (and selective) liberal outrage no longer can no relied upon to carry the day..
Fascinating Sir Michael, but why stop halfway?
Posted by scrabb on October 8, 2023, 7:50 pm, in reply to "Re: surprise attack?"
Who exactly are these "powerful factions" and are they working in concert? What is their endgame? Do they seek a final solution one way or t'other? As the US usually calls the shots in the Mid-East what outcome are they hoping for? Or is the US sidelined in this new scenario as yesterday's man? I agree there are deeper motivations for what we are witnessing, but what the devil are they?
Re: Fascinating Sir Michael, but why stop halfway?
I think Mossad and the CIA (in their role as a western bankers' private army) are influential here with a shared interest in dollar hegemony and upgrading the unsinkable aircraft carrier, Israel.
On the other side the Iranian security services and the Chinese govt who publicly affirmed their linked interests will be exerting direct and indirect influence respectively to achieve a more favorable security situation for their energy trade in the region.
Pentagon, Turkey, Russia also involved as seen in Syria.
The bureaucratic takeover of the US by the CIA and FBI may be an important factor here. The process which was already visible when nominal leaders Bush and Rumsfeld read my pet goat and collected wreckage on the lawn during the greatest ever attack on US on 9-11, is now complete. Biden is a clear indication of this, although a reversal is still possible.
A bureaucracy, like a computer can powerfully augment the human intellect, but both tend to perform poorly without human guidance.
For example it took years and an incredibly powerful computor to defeat Kasparov and even then it was suspected that a strong human player provided oversight and intervened at a critical moment.
Chess computers go for material and were highly vulnerable to sacifices. 'Why would he do that?' is not a question it will ask.
I believe that that the Russians did pretty much this in Ukraine. They presented a apparently easy target ie 50,000 troops with vulnerable supply lines facing a much larger army dug into massive fortifications and the nato bureacracy predictable went for the material, the easy win. The bureacracy was incapable of asking why they did that.
The pace of the Russian transformation after nato committed should arouse suspicion. Visa was replaced by the chinese in about 24 hours. In other areas, their transformation was steady, but never too much to jeopardise the steady flow of Nato weapons, cash and credibilty into the ukraine crucible where they were burnt to ashes.
Now, once again the bureacracy has been presented with a chance for easy gain. This time Hamas has started a war for which it appears to be woefully i'll prepared. Again, despite being stuck in the Ukraine mantrap, the hegemon rushes in..media assets mobilise, US military flights arrive from Jordan, and a carrier group steams in.
I suspect we will see another transformation in the regional opposition occur as the hegemon's committment deepens. Iran claimed they have a hypersonic missile available recently..this is indicative. Is it impossible to imagine the Israeli govt admitting that the Palestinian rockets will be allowed to strike because the remaining iron dome ammo must be preserved for greater threats? Things could change pretty quickly..i wonder what the hegemon would look like with a mantrap on both legs..
Re: Fascinating Sir Michael, but why stop halfway?