Most likely a wet winter. Not a slam dunk, sometimes even a moderate El Nino happens and we get a dry year. But the indicators point to a wet one...the warm waters are bunching up off of the west coast of S. America and that type of El Nino typically results in atmospheric rivers for California. When it bunches up in the mid Pacific, its a toss up.

I'm a meteorology nerd. Don't ask me any physics questions though, I'll just give you a blank stare