X factor: Shooting. The Beach shoots just 31% from deep and 71% from the free throw line, both in the bottom third of Division I.
Upset potential: Low.
A scan of their roster already shows a big discrepancy. They are BIG. 4 7-footers and more.
https://arizonawildcats.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster
Wildcats Stats (full stats https://arizonawildcats.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats )
TEAM STATS
-The starters have been the same 5 all year
-Many Seniors
-37% as a team from 3 pts
-10+ rebounding margin
-3:2 Assist/Turnover
-15-1 record at home, 10-7 away or nuetral
-88 points per game, give up 72
Stats of Key Players
STARTERS
Caleb Love, 6-4 Sr. G: 18 pts, 5 rbs, 3.4 apg. 35% from 3, 85% FTs
A big (205 lb) strong shooting guard, high volume 3 shooter. 4 defensive rbs a game.
Oumar Ballo, 7-0, 260 Sr.: 13 pts, 10 rbs, 1.5 blocks, 1 steal. 50% FTs
Huge active and terrible FT shooter. 3+ offensive rbs per game
Pelle Larson, 6-6 215 Sr.: 13 pts, 4 rbs, 3.6 apg, 43% 3 pt, 76% FT
Lower volume but excellent 3 pt shooter, multi-tooled
Keshad Johnson, 6-7 225 Sr.: 12 pts, 6 rbs, 2 apg, 39% 3 pt, 70% FT
Another load and he can step out
Kylan Boswell, 6-2 So.: 10 pts, 2 rbs, 3.6 apg, 39% 3 pt, 78% FT
Sturdy combo guard high volume 3 pt shooter
BENCH
Jaden Bradley, 6-3 So: 6.5 pts, 2 rbs, 2 apg, 45% 3 pt, 82% FT
Low volume 3 pt shooter but accurate
KJ Lewis, 6-4 Fr: 6 pts, 3 rbs, 2 apg, 32% 3 pt, 80% FT
200 lbs. Another big guard
Motiejus Krivas, 7-2 260 Fr: 6 pts, 4 rbs, 78% FT
MINOR BENCH
Paulius Marauskas, 6-8 225 Fr: 3 pts, 1 rb, 50% 3 pts. Sharpshooter only 6 minutes a game
Filip Borovicanin, 6-9 225 So: 2.4 ppg, 2 rb, 0-12 from 3, but 13-15 FTs
Grant Weitman, 6-4 Sr: used sparingly
ASSESSMENT ON PAPER ( I've never seen them play...if you have, please add to the review )
They are a well balanced high major team that is on the big side of size
We will likely be outrebounded big time
No pure pg. As a team they probably run a lot of ball movement and various guys handling the flow.
Only 1 guy is over 30 mpg, Mr. Love.
Most starters around 26-29 mpg.
8 man rotation essentially. 3 guys off bench get lots of minutes per game (Bradley, Lewis, Krivas) and have played in all 33 games.
GUYS WHO REALLY CONCERN ME
Ballo. We have some size, but no one 7-0 260ish. He may be like UCSDs big center but 3x more effective. Lassina is big enough not to get whomped and can use quickness on offense and fallaways, also face the basket 10-12 footers.
Love: Physical guard and leader of the team statistically. Jadon will get this task. He's Pepper all over but probably more athletic
Boswell: 40% high volume 3 pt shooter. On paper, Messiah gets him to start, then Isa/Hart. Stick to him like glue no open 3's you know, our biggest problemo.
GUYS IF WE IGNORE WHO CONCERN ME
Larson and Johnson: feels like they are more system guys who are very productive in their own ways, both can shoot a 3, both do it all. Probably play some focused defense too. Aboubacar and AJ need to keep them in check. Doable.
Bradley: can bomb from 3
Krivas: Just another load off the bench. Stroud and Polynice will be busy helping with Ballo and will need to help here too.
OUR CHANCES
Slim to none. I dare predict a score, but here goes: AZ 103, LB 88
TACTICS
No idea. Well, a few come to mind. Play a lot of guys for two reasons...one, we will get seriously tired against this deep experienced team that scores a ton. We can play this way and let our guys have some fun with it, and we can be very good at running the break. Polynice might get 15+ minutes. I'd play the same defense we threw in against UCR/UCI/UCD (so nice to thrash three UC schools all in a row!)...with one caveat, lots of token pressure full court not the risky trapping kind much they'll learn to eat us alive but make sure their ball handlers don't get a head of steam coming up court, make them work a bit for every dribble. Then sag off into the defensive style we played in the BWT. Whatever that was. There will be size mismatches everywhere, we had some view of that v UCI but this will be at a whole new level. Mostly, play loose and have fun, if its somehow close in the last 5 minutes, this team knows how to buckle down.
GO BEACH!!!
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