My favorite was kicking the FG to go up by 6. He deserved to lose by 1, and he did. LOL
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2024/9/17/24247284/nick-sirianni-faulty-decision-making-cost-eagles-fourth-down-aggressive-third-down-analytics-falcons
Kicking a FG to Go Up 6
This brings us to the final poor game management decision: kicking a FG to turn a 1 score game into a 1 score game. It is 4th and 3 at the ATL 10-yard line with 1:39 on the clock. The Eagles make the decision to kick a FG, which not only eliminates the possibility of winning the game on 1 play, it also gives up 20 yards of field position (via the ensuing kickoff/touchback) with no time runoff in a situation where time is paramount, and the Falcons have no timeouts.
Per ESPN analytics, the probability of winning the game if you go for it on 4th down is 95% while the probability of winning if you kick a FG drops to 90%. But that is baking in the fact that you could convert on 4th down. What if we remove that from the equation entirely? What if we input the scenario of giving the Falcons the ball at the 10-yard line down 3 or the 30-yard line down 6? The result is a 7% win probability in the former and a 10% win probability in the latter. Simply put, the decision to kick a FG, even if you make it, hurts your win probability more than failing a 4th down attempt.
Why is that? It is for the simple reason that teams down 3 tend to score 3 points, while teams that are down 6 tend to score 7 points. Down 3, teams get conservative once they are in FG range, content to take the game to overtime. When they are down 6, they are forced to be aggressive and go for the win.
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