https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/10/31/2020-presidential-election-odds--senate-race-predictions-70-of-money-bet-backs-trump-over-biden/

The books were so dead wrong in 2016.
Hillary was favored by a huge margin.

2 Trump elections so far.
The books were wrong in 2016.
The betting public wrong in 2020. The UK books were wrong in 2020 as well. US books had it closer.
But still more money on Trump

Trump presents a rather unique betting circumstance. Sharps usually stay clear from political wagers. Too much late unpredictablity.

Trump is so unique to the betting markets bc the demographic that supports him most. Low educated male gringo. Is also a very large betting demographic. As well, the vast majority of betting public wagers are done so with an emotional connection.
The largest Harris demographic is women. Women bettors are Nowhere near the amount of us men that like to wager at the sport book. Slot machines & roulette wheels? That a far closer split of male/female gamblers.

Additionally, the betting season opened with the game being Biden vs Trump. Like a baseball game. The pitching change cancelled most bets. Altho, at some books you could be the election as the winner being Democrat, Republican or other.

When Biden dropped out, all the Trump bets, all the Biden bets. They were refunded- ," no action".
The Trump money came back in quickly. And the vig on Trump soared. The Biden money, it sat on the sidelines. The + big on Harris steadily increased over the past 90 days in an attempt to get that Biden money back into the mix on Harris. At one point, Harris was +185. It has since tightened up some.

It really comedic, reading/ hearing/ watching people claim Trump will win because of how heavily he's favored in the betting market. Yet don't understand how spreads are created or what vigorish even is.
The ignorant out front yet again.

Vegas loves taking the betting publics money. They're not as worried about elections. It's a money maker for most books.
It's the sharps that crush books. They lay wagers in the 5 & 6 digit amount. A line change, a big adjust. It can crush a books big via sharp middlers.

I imagine? The money on Trump is in at 7-1? 8-1.
But it's 90%? 95% 2 or 3 digit bets.
Even if they lose? Vegas know Joe Trump flag will give it back on next week's Notre Dame game.


I don't pretend to know who will win this US election that's not my point.
Just don't think the bookies odds are predictive.
They've gotten it wrong in 2 straight election if you use the vigorish as the standard.

Vegas needs to do a better job turning out women & other non wagering demographics on their platforms before vig once again becomes a reliable predictor.