At 4 p.m., the disturbance was centered near 20.3 N and 93.2 W, about 380 miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, and about 410 miles southeast of Brownsville.
Sustained winds were 40 mph with a central barometric pressure of 1001 MB, or 29.56 inches.
The system was moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
Mexico has posted a Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast, while the National Hurricane Center has posted a Tropical Storm Watch from Port OConnor south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Corrected time of next intermediate advisory
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate adviosry at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Quick Links and Additional Resources
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories
MARINE FORECASTS
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine
SOCIAL MEDIA
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook NHC on Facebook
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube YouTube
Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress NHC Blog:
"Inside the Eye"
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Espaņol
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
OTHER RESOURCES
Q & A with NHC
NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio
NWS FORECAST OFFICES
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Responses