Re: Tropical Storm Andres
Posted by Daniel H on May 9, 2021, 12:04 pm, in reply to "Tropical Storm Andres"
WTPZ41 KNHC 091454
Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021
Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features,
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt.
This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern
with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west
of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by
recent microwave imagery. Since earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength,
and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named.
Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern
North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017.
Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the
west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional
strengthening. The official forecast generally follows the
numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant
low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory.
The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5. Andres
should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level
ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the
low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation. The
official track forecast is on the southern side of the model
guidance suite. This also close to the latest latest corrected
consensus, or HCCA, track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW