Re: Hurricane Rick
Posted by Daniel H on October 23, 2021, 10:01 am, in reply to "Hurricane Rick"
Edited by board administrator October 23, 2021, 10:22 am
There is a dance of the models going on. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. |
From the 4 am discussion.
"Although the guidance agrees on that general steering flow, there
are still significant difference regarding the location and timing
of landfall in southern or southwestern Mexico. The GFS, Canadian,
and HWRF are along the eastern edge of the track model envelope
while the ECMWF, UKMET, and CTCI models are along the western side.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous advisory but remains close to the various consensus aids.
It should be noted that the global model ensembles suggest a
stronger cyclone is likely to track more eastward. Therefore the
official forecast has been nudged in that direction and it is
possible future eastward adjustments could be required."
The more East the better for us.
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Discussion here (I don't think it will auto update)
From the 10 am Saturday, the dance continues
"There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking
Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction."