La Manzanilla Message Board
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La Manzanilla message board
Posted by Judy H on September 29, 2022, 7:41 am
Tracking TSOrlene…So much difference between the European Hurricane track and NOAA’s…in any event, looks like a bunch of rain coming our way. |
Posted by Daniel H on September 29, 2022, 8:40 am, in reply to "Orlene"
Edited by board administrator September 29, 2022, 9:02 am
Thanks Judy, |
Do you have a link to the source?
Ventusky has the ECMWF as one of the models you can run. I set it for Saturday and it shows the storm going by to our west, it differs from yours.
Here is a hot link to the NOAA Forecast Cone
Posted by Judy H on September 29, 2022, 11:09 am, in reply to "Re: Orlene"
Sorry, I thought the address was in the image, which came from my app for Windy.com. Those two images were from NOAA and from the ECMWF model found on https://www.windy.com/ |
This one is the 10AM update on the NOAA model…taken from windy.com (you can see my source in this image).
Posted by Daniel H on September 29, 2022, 9:51 pm, in reply to "Re: Orlene"
Windy, I should have remembered that. I had a subscription but cancelled it when they changed the option to skip to a future date to only being able to access the future by letting it play. |
It was the difference between the two models in your first post (as you mentioned) that intrigued / worried me.
I welcome you to the club of those who are working with predictive algorithms / models. I find it interesting to watch them morph as they get better, but have also had to get clear on the state of prediction that they are currently in, which is not much.
There are a lot of countries running their own data models, its a race. Once they go self learning on the algorithm (if they are not already) its going to take an order of magnitude leap in a short space of time. A huge leap from the 66% accuracy of the NOAA cone of confidence which is itself quite generous to error.
Posted by Daniel H on October 1, 2022, 5:57 pm, in reply to "Orlene"
Posted by david dagoli on October 1, 2022, 7:03 pm, in reply to "Re: Orlene"
Posted by Daniel H on October 1, 2022, 8:14 pm, in reply to "Re: Orlene"
"Hurricane Orlene strengthens some off Mexico's Pacific coast" |
"The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Orlene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kph) at midafternoon. It was centered about 195 miles (315 kilometers) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes and moving north at 5 mph (7 kph)."
I prefer hurricanes to be moving North West.
NOAA is using the symbol M (major hurricane) as apposed to the H (normal hurricane)
I don't think we are going to get much damage from
Orlene but I am boarded up anyway, its less stressful to do it than to not. I plan to stay on the beach tonight, the high point will be tomorrow around 10 am with the high tide and the storm directly off shore.
One of these day's we will be able to get accurate predictions for specific GPS concordances. Which will mean the prediction algorithm takes into consideration the way La Manzanilla is protected by Tamarindo etc. and the prediction will be different for La Manzanilla as compared to Boca de Iguanas.
Posted by Daniel H on October 2, 2022, 10:25 am, in reply to "Orlene"
This morning NOAA had it as a cat 4 hurricane about 70 miles off our coast. Right now we have little to no rain, light breezes, normal waves. It makes zero sense to me, problem is I am getting used to that. |
Posted by ElkeG on October 2, 2022, 12:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Orlene"
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