La Manzanilla message board

Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Felipe on June 29, 2023, 9:33 am We are likely going to have hurricane Beatriz affect us strongly tomorrow evening and overnight Friday. It’s rapidly increasing in intensity and will be right off our coast. Could be very close. Either way we’re supposed to get 7 inches of rain and of course tropical storm force winds. So get your ducks and geese in a row, mother nature is giving us a wake up call!

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Daniel H on June 29, 2023, 9:50 am, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Ventusky says it will be off our coast a bit Sat 9 pm with wind gust of 24 in our area. Close enough to put on the water proof panties https://www.ventusky.com/?p=17.4;-103.2;3&l=gust&t=20230702/0300&w=0xIAb9A9A

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Felipe on June 29, 2023, 9:57 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Thanks for posting that Daniel. Zoom is showing it being much more serious and coming much earlier. So we’ll be monitoring all these channels to see which is correct but it is very fluid and they expect a rapid intensification. Fascinating how different the models are. Hoping Ventusky is right but I’m not taking any chances

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Daniel H on June 29, 2023, 1:21 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Boca surf report says big waves Saturday https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bocadelos-Iguanas/forecasts/latest/six_day

Weather Algorithms Posted by Mark S. on June 29, 2023, 2:37 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Ventusky gives one the option to switch between different weather algorithms. On my version of it, Ventusky uses ICON as its default algorithm but gives one the ability to switch to others (GFS, GEM, ECMWF, etc.). In my experience over the past years, I have found GFS to be the most reliable of the weather algorithms for our area. With respect to Beatrice (once she is formally named) the GFE route of it closely coincides with NOAA's prediction. We'll see!

Re: Weather Algorithms Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 8:11 am, in reply to "Weather Algorithms" Ahh, the early days of hurricane tracking. Ventusky GFS shows the hurricane well off shore Saturday 12 pm. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.7;-104.7;5&l=gust&t=20230701/1200&m=gfs&w=0xIAb9A9A Ventusky ICON shows the hurricane going ashore South of us Saturday 6 am. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.1;-107.2;5&l=gust&t=20230701/1200&m=icon&w=0xIAb9A9A The 4 am discussion section of NOAA says "While the models generally agree with this scenario, there are important differences among them on how close Beatriz will get to the coast of Mexico. The GFS and the HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope and keep the center a significant distance offshore. On the other hand, the ECMWF, the UKMET, and the Canadian models all bring the center onshore in western Mexico in 24-36 h. The early part of the new track forecast keeps the center just offshore of the coast through 36 h as a blend of the previous forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. However, any motion to the right of the track would result in Beatriz making landfall in Mexico." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/300833.shtml?

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Lars on June 29, 2023, 4:57 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " NOAA Thursday afternoon- https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/ep0223.gif

Hurricane Beatriz direct hit Posted by Felipe on June 29, 2023, 6:18 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Both Zoom and Clime are showing Hurricane Beatriz to give us a direct hit on Friday! The hurricane will pass directly over us including the eye of the storm. That means the eye wall winds of approx. 90 miles an hour will strike us full on twice with a calm period in between when the eye passes overhead. Hang onto your hats and batten down the hatches. If you don’t have to be outside for any reason please don’t because of flying debris. This will be my 17th hurricane and I’ve seen stuff fly through the air and whack people hard. Bring in anything loose that can fly around and enjoy the ride! I will be evacuating my home on the beach tomorrow afternoon to write it out in a safe house near the highway.

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Daniel H on June 29, 2023, 8:35 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Edited by board administrator June 29, 2023, 8:50 pm You see that dotted red line going around the area of the storm? That is called the cone of confidence or the cone of certainty. If center of the hurricane goes anywhere within that dotted red line it is considered and accurate prediction. Very generous of them, yes? Good for the statistics. lies, damn lies, and statistics Not to poo poo the whole progress of weather prediction, they are improving daily and have a few new TROPICS satellite just for a more accurate hurricane prediction. But the cone of confidence gives you an idea of where they are now.

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Mary Burns on June 30, 2023, 6:49 am, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Good luck everybody!

Hurricane Beatriz Forecast Discussion Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 9:27 am, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " This link may auto refresh https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/301500.shtml? This is the 10 am Friday discussion in part. For what its worth. Hold that thought "go ashore now" "Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and northern Mexico. However, as is often the case with cyclones paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt the coast or move inland at some point. The NHC track forecast continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do bring the system inland and show dissipation".

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Raul on June 30, 2023, 3:54 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Looks like it’s petering out? https://www.windy.com/

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Devalinda on June 30, 2023, 4:33 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " According to the 4pm discussion on the National Hurricane Center she is supposed to be a hurricane for a couple more days and they are still not sure about if and where it might make landfall...seems a little early to know yet...Still might be better not to wait till the last minute and be surprised...(just my thoughts) 🤔

Boca surf report drops warnings Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 6:00 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " Something changed in their world no more warnings and no more hurricane Beatriz on the Saturday graphic. https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bocadelos-Iguanas/forecasts/latest/six_day

Clime’s data of late Posted by Judy and Felipe on June 30, 2023, 7:21 pm, in reply to "Boca surf report drops warnings" Never know until it’s a done deal but here are 3 screenshots, for what they are worth, from the CLIME app -6PM report, 12AM prediction, 12PM prediction… Playing it safe up on our hill. gif dinero

Re: Clime’s data of late Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 8:44 pm, in reply to "Clime’s data of late" Good job Judy. I never heard of CLIMES before, mostly interested in where they are getting their data, NOAA (like most) or ? https://climeradar.com/application/clime

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Jo Anna H on June 30, 2023, 7:06 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " How's it feeling there right now? I do hope everyone's safe and know you'll all be taking appropriate precautions. in my heart

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Dan Brown on June 30, 2023, 7:29 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " I have been through a few hurricanes in my time in Key West, 1, 2, 3 and one borderline 4, but at least for now the weather and sunset right now in La Manz are fabulous, for my first La Manz Hurricane. Street Tacos are up and serving.

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 8:36 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " I concur, wonderful evening on the beach at sunset.

Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening Posted by carole on June 30, 2023, 9:45 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " JoAnna Thanks for your profound input. As usual.

Something strange happening Posted by Daniel H on June 30, 2023, 9:04 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Beatriz coming here Friday evening " First Boca Surf report drops all high wave warnings. Then a friend of mine shows me some Windy graphics that show the hurricane already on shore at 5 pm. Now I am using Ventusky which is saying the same thing using algorithm ICON https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.4;-99.2;4&l=gust&t=20230701/0300&m=icon&w=0xIAb9A9A And GEM https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.4;-99.2;4&l=gust&t=20230701/0300&m=gem&w=0xIAb9A9A Only GFS shows it still off shore a little bit https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.4;-99.1;4&l=gust&t=20230701/0300&m=gfs&w=0xIAb9A9A Yet NOAA is still singing the same song they have been all day https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/023952.shtml?cone#contents Something is not right and I think it is NOAA playing it safe due to their being a government agency who is open to liable suit if they say there is no more danger and something happens. I could be wrong but I don't remember seeing this much disparity in what the current situation is.

graphic ; animate and zoom Posted by john p on June 30, 2023, 9:23 pm, in reply to "Something strange happening" https://zoom.earth/storms/beatriz-2023/

Re: graphic ; animate and zoom Posted by Devalinda on June 30, 2023, 10:30 pm, in reply to "graphic ; animate and zoom" WOW..love that zoom tracker map....thanks for that one.

Re: Something strange happening Posted by Daniel H on July 1, 2023, 6:08 am, in reply to "Something strange happening" Edited by board administrator July 1, 2023, 6:23 am Well, the storm is right on us and basically at the moment its cricketts, a little rain, no waves, no wind, just strange. Perhaps something will happen before its over but for now..... Oh, and on the Strange that I posted above, I figure that once an algorithm is running they don't correct it, even if it has been proven wrong, hence the Ventusky and Windy scenarios. I wrote to the Boca Surf report yesterday to see what source they are using, what made them change the surf report so early on. Add to the mix that the hurricane did make partial land fall. This from the 4 am discussion "The center of Beatriz brushed the coast of Mexico near Punta San Telmo back around 0000 UTC, and since then the cyclone has steadily lost organization. "

Re: Something strange happening Posted by Sara B on July 1, 2023, 7:34 am, in reply to "Re: Something strange happening" So it's over?

Yup, its over Posted by Daniel H on July 1, 2023, 9:30 am, in reply to "Re: Something strange happening" North of us now https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/144640.shtml?cone#contents

Re: Yup, its over Posted by Devalinda on July 1, 2023, 10:50 am, in reply to "Yup, its over" Well than was the weirdest hurricane ever! Happy for the rain tho...4 full rain barrels!!YES!!

« Back to index