La Manzanilla message board

Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2023, 3:43 pm Edited by board administrator October 8, 2023, 4:21 pm Well, here is a static image last updated Sunday 3 pm. I will put an auto updated link at the bottom. We are under hurricane watch with the center of the storm predicted to hit North of Puerto Vallarta. According to ChatGPT NOAA has a 90% accuracy when it comes to tracking hurricanes 48 hours away. https://chat.openai.com/share/26e693e6-b08e-4231-81b2-0bf15dfc58b2 Ventusky basically agrees with NOAA with two of the three models it runs. It also shows us getting significant wind. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=20.21;-104.10;6&l=gust&t=20231011/0000&m=icon&w=0xIAb9A9A Ventusky is saying rain for us https://www.ventusky.com/?p=20.21;-104.13;6&l=rain-3h&t=20231011/0000&m=icon&w=0xIAb9A9A Boca Surf has just put the red exclamation point on all of Tuesday. IMO this is the place to check, if Lida is going to miss us (for the most part) they will drop those warnings. https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bocadelos-Iguanas/forecasts/latest/six_day I expect most, if not all, boats will be off the beach by Monday evening. That is also a good event to watch for updates if any. So, there we are then. Edit: I don't like it when hurricanes come straight at us like Lidia, you get the full storm surge. last hurricane that came from the west (hooked at the end) was Patricia. Due note, that Patricia was a CAT 5 hurricane, Lidia is barely a hurricane, but even Tropical Storms are known for significantly ####ing shit up. Updated NOAA track

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Stephanie on October 8, 2023, 3:57 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Thanks Danial for keeping us informed…and… Happy Birthday!

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2023, 4:24 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Your welcome. It's not my birthday.

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Stephanie on October 8, 2023, 4:30 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Yer welcome! No..but it’s coming soon cause mine is today!

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2023, 4:46 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Oh, a little reverse psychology (or something like that). Happy birthday! yeah your going to party, party

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Cruz G on October 9, 2023, 6:54 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Hola, Stephania. Happy belated birthday and letting you know that we share a birth date. I really enjoyed mine and I hope you did too. Feliz cumpleanos. Cruz

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by LisaFern on October 9, 2023, 3:46 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" I'm monitoring the weather as I need to travel. It seems pretty unstable at this point. Any thoughts from the weather nerds on what might happen in the next few days? Thanks for your educated guesses.

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 9, 2023, 7:26 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" When are you traveling? The weather situation looks clear starting Wednesday. PV will shut down tomorrow, probably around 12 pm judging by past conservative actions.

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by LisaFern on October 9, 2023, 10:08 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" thanks for your observations Daniel and Kimberly. One thing is certain - we sure need more rain. As always, vamos a ver....

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions Posted by Kimberly O on October 9, 2023, 7:31 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" If you plan on a flight out of Puerto Vallarta I would expect to be delayed. The App we use takes the path right over PV. If you are going south Hurricane Max is cioming on shore around Acaploco. We are certainly going to get rain (possibly around 3-5 inches) On Wdenesday and Thursday. We might get some wind but no palm benders. The waves should get pretty healthy/

Waether Posted by Kimberly O on October 9, 2023, 7:57 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" I misspoke…I meant Tuesday and Wednesday….sorry about that

Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 9, 2023, 7:48 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Lidia apox 48 hour predictions" Confidence is high that Lida will come ashore as a category 1 hurricane just North of PV making landfall around 6 pm or so. We here in La Manzanilla are under Hurricane watch and are just on the edge of the Cone of confidence (normal error rate). Static image as of this posting. There are still 5 (or more) fishing boats on the beach, I am assuming they will be moved early tomorrow morning. I am not privy to their forecast sources, but am curious as to how the past historical / intuition based system is interacting with the new tech. Lidia is going to be some significant wind, some rain very probably a bunch of wave action. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=18.56;-103.95;6&l=wave&t=20231011/0000&m=icon&w=0xIAb9A9A Being that I am sea level right on the beach I am taking full precautions. Boarding up the office and moving anything I want to keep off the beach. As I get older it has become the preferred way of dealing with possible B movies. Just assume the worst and get to a place that is comfortable in those circumstances. If it turns out I over reacted, so what. Onward Life is good Auto updating hurricane track

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions Posted by Mark S. on October 10, 2023, 5:50 am, in reply to "Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions" As one can see looking at NOAA's latest projection attached to Daniel H.'s most recent message ("Auto updating hurricane track") the probable path of Lidia is significantly more to the south than previous predictions. Now, Lidia is headed directly toward PV. La Manzanilla, which was previously issued a tropical storm warning, is now also under a hurricane watch. That "Auto updating hurricane track" is very cool, Daniel!

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2023, 6:14 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions" Its not looking too good for us at the moment. Self updating - right click on the image and select - copy image link - type this code and put the image link where it says put url here

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions Posted by Mary Burns on October 10, 2023, 6:33 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions" Wishing you safe passage through the storm!

Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2023, 6:49 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions" As usual the good stuff is in the Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/100842.shtml? the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. The hurricane should move faster to the east-northeast later today The track guidance has once again trended southward this cycle. further strengthening up until landfall Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

Lidia is Category 2 hurricane Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2023, 10:01 am, in reply to "Hurricane Lidia apox 24 hour predictions" No good news for us "This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a category 2 hurricane". "The NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one " "Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast," "Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/100842.shtml? Not only that it appears (so far) the boat that is being stored next to my office will not be taken off the beach. Arghhhh. https://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html

Re: Lidia is Category 2 hurricane Posted by Raul on October 10, 2023, 2:33 pm, in reply to "Lidia is Category 2 hurricane" Maybe the boat next to your office will be washed far away and the expansive view returned in its place. Quien sabe

Re: Lidia is Category 2 hurricane Posted by Windy on October 10, 2023, 2:52 pm, in reply to "Re: Lidia is Category 2 hurricane" Forecast was revised at 1:45 pm, it is nearing a cat 4 according to NHC

Re: Lidia is Category 2 hurricane Posted by david dagoli on October 10, 2023, 4:13 pm, in reply to "Re: Lidia is Category 2 hurricane"

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