And then in partial disagreement by agreeing with a lot of the concerns raised by that blog post and the one raised by willem. If only hospital deaths via covid are accounted for, we miss the bigger picture of death by misadventure following job loss, economic breakdown, suicide, the old, lonely and forgotten. I've seen the effects of recession on individuals, loss of livelihood etc. It's not a trifling matter. Same goes for isolation of the vulnerable (mostly self induced but the result often ends in untimely demise ). One method of deals my with the problem doesn't trump another, and that's the problem. But it would be nice if concession was being made to mitigate some of these potential and unfolding tragedies alongside a lockdown. Not all of us have someone to love us and look out for us. Casual social contact for many is literally a lifeline. That has now stopped. A job when you must pay rent and (still it seems) council tax, electricity, gas, water an so forth. Or a job when you're paying a mortgage. Or just a job that in your shitty life makes you feel like there's a reason to get out of bed. I suspect a lot are descending into lethargy, over eating, drinking often, smoking too much (my vice) out of sheer boredom. What are the knock on effects for health for this probable majority? Then as sue mentioned, the cancer, heart and other at risk patients deferred to deal with covid? How many will die as a result of being left for too long?
In terms of the philosophical sums for deaths this way vs death that way, has anyone done them. More importantly, is there any real discussion to mitigate the ramifications of the side effects of 'self' isolation (which is actual self isolation for the unluckiest).
If the goal is to save lives (by all accounts it is), more than just covid 19 needs addressing in a forced lockdown.
I'm not saying no lockdown, just in case that wasn't clear.
Btw not certain the logic in the blog post is quite there with the perc death v contraction being way lower than estimated, because there will be a lot of home deaths too, which will take a while to reach the stats, if they ever do. Being told to stay home and not call a doctor etc everywhere you look will have the effect of meaning that a lot of people (particularly those that live alone) will just retire to bed and hope they stay alive.
I'd guess that the number post event of deaths will end up being significantly higher. Hospitals will only be seeing the patients anyone actually cares about.