And it shows that we know very little about any of it. It is possible that by beginning with the idea we are confirming false positives (on effect of lockdown I mean) or false negatives, depending on our perspectives. That is, maybe lockdown, or no lockdown, do nothing at all.
Like with other viruses, there seems to be spikes at different times in different places when no social measures are in place, too. We may be seeing results and attributing them to our actions, but scientifically determining the relationship between the two is nearly always impossible, just best guess.
Its the reason I am struggling with the certainty so many seem to have on the subject; there *are* confounding variables. How can we be so certain of anything?
Add to that the health side effects of world wide focus on one disease that leads to
less money (with a host of knock on effects affecting health, like)
poor mental health
exclusion of vulnerable physically/socially
direct poverty for billions
How can we make an informed decision to say its all worth the risk? Madeleine Albright telling us that a million Iraqi children dead was worth it to sanction Saddam Hussein is an example of this kind of thinking.. and she's been mocked here for it, rightly.
The thing is, she probably believed that those lives lost by her actions saved a bunch more, because she subscribed to that ideology. I don't think she was any more of a monster than anyone else with a potentially dangerous idea, except she had the power to make it happen, and she was ill informed.
I know that many here think that it would be ok if govts had a strategy that included the poor and dispossessed, whilst keeping and strengthening lockdown measures. But even if that were likely (it is not), our actions as a first world country do have real knockon effects to poorer countries via business revenue. We can't pretend that is not a thing, and I won't pretend it is not my problem. It is, and for all of us.
I don't want covid. I don't want the inconvenience and issues that would result from having no access to fuel for my car or for my home (ha, like I can afford heating!), but that doesn't make me champion western domination of the ME either.
Till last year there had never been more than (I believe) city wide lockdowns for viruses anywhere, so we had no data to suggest efficacy. We still don't because as above the variables are too great to make a good case either way. But we do know what economic strangulation does to the poor because we have a load of data on that (India, Ireland, et al).
Anyway, interesting article, if only for that list. It doesn't prove anything, but that's kind of the point.