The US and its allies continue beating the drums of war in regards to China, but
how serious is this? Will it really lead to war, or is it merely posturing meant
to give the US the most favorable position on the other side of a fully
A critical inflection point identified by US war planners for years is
approaching, where China's economic and military might will irreversibly surpass
the US and the center of global power will likewise irreversibly shift from West
to East creating a global balance of power unseen for centuries. A closing
window of opportunity estimated to close between 2025 and 2030 allows the US to
carry out a limited war with China, resulting in a favorable outcome for
Washington. Beyond that, the US will find itself outmatched and any attempt to
curb China's rise rendered futile.
The propaganda war, and the war itself this propaganda aims to justify and rally
support for, is unmistakable, particularly for those who have witnessed similar
buildups ahead of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, or US-led military
interventions in nations like Libya and Syria from 2011 onward.
A recent 60 Minutes Australia segment titled, "War with China: Are we closer
than we think?," presented an amalgamation of this ongoing propaganda used to
vilify the Chinese government, dehumanize the Chinese people, and create
sufficient anger, fear, paranoia, distrust, and hatred in hearts and minds
across the planet to justify what would be for the 21st century, an
For the United States, a war with China would be the first of its kind, a war
with a peer or near-peer competitor armed with nuclear weapons.
Yet US war planners are fairly confident that the conflict could be confined to
East Asia, remain conventional, and see a favorable outcome for the US that
would secure its primacy over Asia for decades to come.
A victory for the US would not be military in nature, but rather hinge on
"nonmilitary factors," and focus on disrupting and setting back China's economy
and thus the power propelling China past the United States at the moment.
The 2016 US War Plan Coming to Life
These conclusions were laid out in a 2016 RAND Corporation document titled, "War
with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable," commissioned by the Office of the
Undersecretary of the Army and carried out by the RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy,
Doctrine, and Resources Program. The report notes that the RAND Arroyo Center is
part of the RAND Corporation and is a federally-funded research and development
center sponsored by the United States Army.
The report notes that America's military advantage is in decline vis-a-vis
China, but also lays out several current realities that would favor the US
should hostilities unfold.
It states on page 9 of the PDF document:
The RAND document admits that China's forces are concentrated in Chinese
territory and that virtually all flash points that could trigger a conflict are
likewise located in the region. This implies that US forces would need to be
more or less right up to China's shores and regional claims, and insist on
interfering in regional disputes or intervene in matters between Taiwan and
The Nuclear Question
Many assume any war between China and the United States would escalate into a
nuclear exchange. However, this is unlikely except under the most extreme
Regarding nuclear and conventional warfare, the RAND document makes a compelling
The report studies a window of opportunity that began in 2015 and stretches to
2025. Current developments seem to indicate the US may see this window extend as
far as 2030, including the recent announcement of the "AUKUS" alliance where
US-UK-built Australian nuclear-powered submarines would be coming online and
ready to participate in such a conflict around the early 2030s.
-- Cont'd at https://journal-neo.org/2021/09/27/us-war-plans-with-china-taking-shape/