… Second, according to this [US] bill, this would trigger sanctions making the trade of Russia with the West impractical. That would force Russia to conclude military cooperation with Iran and threaten to close Hormuz until all unjust sanctions (i.e. those not approved by UN) are dropped, and with no relief on that, indeed make such closure affecting all cargoes going to countries cooperating with American sanctions. At that point, countries interested in importing oil, natural gas, nitrogen fertilizers etc. would have to declare if they cooperate with those sanctions or not.
I mean, either the sanctions spelled out with somewhat obscure references to other acts, presumably like those that govern sanctions on Syria and Venezuela, are as harsh as the latter, or otherwise "sufficiently harsh", international trade will degenerate into exchange of blackmails and piracy (taking others' property by executive decree). 2022 is a year that starts with shortages of many raw materials, first, energy, second, metals, and coming soon, food (energy prices and calamities in USA knocked out a big part of fertilizers production, the only stock of fertilizers that has no overt claimers are Russian fertilizers probably promised to India. And now imagine that Russia controls Ukrainian agricultural exports too.
EU would survive OK, reducing heating to minimum and switching to vegetarian diet, but in countries like Egypt, joining sanctions would lead to food riots. Thermophiliacs and carnivores of Europe may revolt too.
I want to stress that this is a CONDITIONAL scenario. Cooler heads in Washington already lament that sanctions being assembled have huge blowback, most direct in Europe. As USA tries to bludgeon Russia, Iran and China to submission in the same time, and it is a year of commodity shortage that makes Russia stronger, and Russia + Iran becoming an invincible superpower if they unite for the occasion, it just makes too much sense for the countries on the receiving end of American blackmails to unite and retaliate.
That said, some lecturing will come first ....
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 13 2022 3:14 utc | 151