Could well be even lower than that. As the article notes the main reason a complete unknown like Macron got in was to keep Le Pen out. Now he has shown himself as just another neoliberal authoritarian I wouldn't be surprised if the outright fascist won against him this time, if only because people refuse to turn out in his support. Going to get 'interesting' in France soon... It could be their Trump moment - depends, if Le Pen does get in, if she's just another buffoon who doesn't get anything done except a few symbolic actions or the competent fascist that people like Chris Hedges have warned us about. Minorities, immigrants and leftists have good reason to feel very nervous, whoever wins IMO.