About the « slow manner » of the SMO and some other issues concerning Ukraine.
On the Internet there is an article by French Brigadier General (retired) Antoine Martinez, Ukraine-Russia conflict: From fantasy to reality, from illusion to disillusionment. Most of what he says won't surprise barflies, but if your neighbours and friends (and mine) think you've been brainwashed in the Manchurian candidate way, you can ask them if General Martinez has been too.
The article recalls that « the operation launched on 24 February by the Russian president is not the starting point of this conflict but is a logical continuation of a war prepared by the United States. »
General Martinez recalls the comments made in December 2014 by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko against the inhabitants of the east of the country:
"We will have work and they will not. We will have pensions and they will not. We will have benefits for pensioners and children, they will not. Our children will go to school and day care, their children will stay in the cellars...And that's how, that's precisely how we will win this war!"
He asks the question whether the Russian operation was foreseeable or not, and relates the sacking of the head of the French military intelligence (Direction du Renseignement Militaire, DRM), who thought that the Russians would not attack.
According to General Martinez, the DRM was right in its own way because the Russian intervention was improvised:
« The military operation (...) was not, in fact, launched on 24 February by Vladimir Putin but on 16 February by the Ukrainian army, which began shelling the civilian population of the Donbass, putting Vladimir Putin in front of a difficult choice. The massive increase in fire against the population of Donbass from that date onwards indicates to the Russians that a major offensive is imminent (...) This is, in fact, an organised provocation - which could, moreover, be qualified as a war crime (bombing of civilian populations) - intended to push Russia to the brink by intervening. In order to be convinced, but is it surprising, the American president, Joe Biden, announced on 17 February, with a Machiavellian assurance, that Russia would attack Ukraine in the next few days. He is obviously right, since the situation will evolve according to the written scenario. »
« (...) It is not a question of taking over Ukraine, nor of occupying or destroying it. This operation was launched as a matter of urgency on 24 February, eight days after the start of the massive bombardment of the civilian population of Donbass, which preceded the assault by Kiev's forces by a few days. This is why it has been called a special operation because it is not a classic high-intensity war against an intractable enemy but rather an operation to liberate a friendly population (Donbass) that has been martyred for eight years in the deafening silence of the Western leaders and media.
This is why Russia has decided to commit only 12% to 15% of its soldiers, without calling on its immense reserves and without declaring a partial, let alone general, mobilisation. The operation is, in fact, being conducted with a numerical inferiority of 1:2, whereas experts admit that the ratio of forces on the ground required in the offensive phase should be 3:1, or even 5:1 in urban areas.
In this context, the offensive towards Kiev could only aim at fixing the Ukrainian troops elsewhere than in the Donbass: "We must always bear in mind this principle of the balance of power. With 1:1 or 1:2, it is out of the question to engage in urban combat. »
General Martinez points out (rightly so IMO)« the immense responsibility of France and Germany in the present situation with their renunciation or their lack of will - and this for eight years - to follow and ensure the application of [the Minsk] agreements whereas they were the guarantors. »
(Machine translation via DeepL)
I let you discover the rest of the article (in French, use a translation software):
Posted by: Leuk | Aug 2 2022 15:22 utc | 7