Samuel Charap, Miranda Priebe | 25 January 2023

h/t Kit Klarenberg

(quote)
Discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington is increasingly dominated by
the question of how it might end. To inform this discussion, this Perspective
identifies ways in which the war could evolve and how alternative trajectories
would affect U.S. interests. The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing
the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a
protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are
significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the
United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's
duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict
more likely. Drawing on the literature on war termination, the authors identify
key impediments to Russia-Ukraine talks, such as mutual optimism about the
future of the war and mutual pessimism about the implications of peace. The
Perspective highlights four policy instruments the United States could use to
mitigate these impediments: clarifying plans for future support to Ukraine,
making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the
country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia.
(/quote)
-- https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html