Update on Russian military operations for March 20, 2023:

* Russian forces are not only encircling the fortified city of Bakhmut, but now
also apparently Avdiivka;

* Both cities are heavily fortified positions along Ukraine's main defense line
in the Donbass region and their encirclement will compromise the entire
defense line;

* Western media continues admitting critical shortages of Ukrainian manpower,
weapons, and ammunition;

* As Ukraine is preparing for its spring offensive, the US and its allies are
likely utilizing emergency stockpiles to surge the amount of artillery and
rocket ammunition to Ukraine in amounts much higher than have recently been
transferred;

* This surge is a one-time possibility after which Western stockpiles will be
exhausted and future shipments will depend mainly on monthly ammunition
production which and will be for several years unable to match or exceed
Russian ammunition supplies;

* Ukraine is being forced to organize a massive offensive using poorly trained
troops operating equipment they are unfamiliar with against Russian forces who
have been preparing to meet this offensive months in advance;

* Ukrainian forces could once again compel Russian forces into withdrawals but
will suffer immense losses before facing counteroffensives comprised of 350k
Russian reservists;