Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:

* Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now
Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine's defense line in the Donbass;

* Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes
on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;

* the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the
land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly
isolate Crimea entirely;

* Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov
/Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops
and extensive defensive works created months in advance;

* The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to
Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once
depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;

* Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as
2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia's ability to
regenerate combat power exceeds the West's at this moment;

* Ukraine's upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of
a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for
withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its
attrition strategy;