on May 18, 2023, 6:06 am
Let's break down in depth exactly what happened on the night of the Patriot
attack and catch up on the known facts and speculations. Here's what is known so
far:
Russia was said to have conducted a layered, multi-vectored attack which came
from various sides including north, east, and south, which included both Geran
drones as screening cover, Kalibr missiles, Kh-101s, and finally the
Kinzhals. The attack also likely included other cheaper types of drones as
decoys to saturate the air defense, and in fact Kiev does attest to that, as in
their official 'shoot down' graphic they include several drones they comically
ID'd as Orlan 'Supercum' which was later changed to 'Supercam'.
First, let's break down how such an attack happens. Most logically, the cheaper
decoy drones are sent in first to see if they can bait out any of the air
defense into opening up on them. Kiev would try to use only its less important
SHORAD (Short Range AD) systems against them, such as German Gepards and any
Tunguskas/Shilkas and such that they might have.
Next would come the cruise missiles in order to bait out the true high value AD
that may have held back with the first wave, and which Ukraine's SHORAD systems
may be useless against. Once the Patriot/SAMP-T/Iris-T/NASAMs/Crotale, etc.,
start opening up on the cruise missiles, Russia will be watching as closely as
possible, with a variety of methods, in order to try to identify the air defense
positions. I'll get to those methods a little later.
It should be stated that there are certain positions Russia already knows are
likely, and are prefigured into their search matrices. For instance, Mim-104
Patriot system is an extremely complex and large system, you can't just set it
up anywhere, like in the middle of an apartment building courtyard or something
like that. These systems not only require a lot of room but also, since they are
much less mobile than drivable units like Gepards and such, they are preferably
situated somewhere that doesn't have a lot of civilian 'eyes' in the area, so
that no one films or rats them out, whether accidentally or not.
This leaves only a few real, solid choices where you can put such a system. And
they are almost always put in airports, as an example. It comes as no surprise
then that during the attacks on 16/5, word now has it that two of the Patriots
were located at Zhuliany airport in Kiev and one at or near the Zoo, as per the
following from Rybar:
(/quote)
-- Cont'd at https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-mim-104-patriot-destruction
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