The Lebanese Front
Why the stability of the Israel - Lebanon border is fraying, raising war risks, and what indicators to watch.
FIRAS MODAD
19 DEC 2023
Deterrence has held so far, but it is fraying, with Israeli residents along the Lebanese border still too afraid to return due to ongoing fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military (IDF). Hezbollah has been conducting around 7-15 attacks per day on the Israeli military, with Israel responding with attacks against Hezbollah militants and positions.
The situation along the northern border of Israel is unstable. There is ongoing diplomatic pressure, instigated by Israel’s Western allies, for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River in compliance with UNSCR1701. This is unlikely to happen for several reasons:
Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon is the result of the local Shi’a populations support for the group which itself is the result of Israel’s occupation of south Lebanon between 1978 and 2000.
Israel is not in full compliance with 1701, and regularly violates Lebanese sovereignty through overflights and naval incursions.
Such a withdrawal did not happen in 2006, after a brutal war. It will not happen through threats and negotiations. If it is to happen, it will have to be after a decisive war.
Hezbollah does not believe that Israel can wage and win a decisive war, but that it might attempt one. And so, it will not comply, as doing so would hand an advantage to Israel in the event of a war.
Israel is unable to accept the status quo:
An area of 5km along the border has been cleared of Israeli residents, due to the threat from Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has shown that it can continue surveillance activities along the border and deep within Israeli territory, detecting new Israeli positions and targeting them regularly.
Hezbollah has shown that it can conduct an attack on the whole Israeli northern front, with some capabilities to enter the Golan and/or seize towns and villages along the border.
That means that Hezbollah can conduct a 7 October-style operation at will. This is especially so given that Hezbollah knocked out most surveillance equipment along the border, blinding Israel.
In turn, that forces Israel to maintain a high state of readiness along the border, which is very costly.
Hezbollah believes that this should deter Israel, especially as Israel struggles to achieve its objectives in Gaza. However, Israel may well see an opportunity to drag the US into the conflict and escalate it. And Israel may not be able to live with this unsustinable situation indefinitely.
Hezbollah – Israel Escalation
Israel has said that it has put in place plans to invade south Lebanon. It leaked the presence of these plans to the Times of London, probably with the aim of placing pressure on foreign countries that want to avoid escalation. Israel likely hopes that this can lead to Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border, but that is extremely unrealistic.
Israel targeted the immediate vicinity of a Hezbollah fighter’s funeral on 18 December. The message is that, as Hezbollah has paralysed normal life in Israel along the border, Israel will attempt to do the same in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has refrained from targeting Israeli civilians, but its Secretary General has publicly committed to a tit-for-tat policy. Despite Israel having killed three Lebanese journalists, however, Hezbollah has refrained from responding in accordance with its threats.
Indeed, Hezbollah has been careful to fight within the ‘rules of the game’ based on the April 1996 War, in which Hezbollah forced Israel to agree to only target military objectives, rather than continue with its policy of targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah has so far only attacked military targets, or civilian houses being used by the Israeli military and from which civilians have been evacuated.
Following the strike against the funeral’s vicinity, Hezbollah responded with an attack on two Iron Dome batteries. This was intended to maintain deterrence - if Hezbollah can strike Iron Dome batteries, then Israel will have no means of intercepting the 2,000 to 3,000 short range rockets that Hezbollah can fire daily in a full scale war. The evacuation area would have to expand from 5km to 20km, if not more. That, in turn, would paralyse much of the Israeli economy and create enormous political pressure in Israel.
Hezbollah is sticking to managed escalation because it too is deterred - Hezbollah does not want the damage inflicted on civilian homes and infrastructure in Gaza to be inflicted on Lebanon, but it is willing to take that risk. It refers to all its attacks as support operations, and to Gaza as the main front.
Watch for:
Israel attacking a Hezbollah fighters’ funeral in south Lebanon and inflicting casualties, leading to a Hezbollah response that turns to full-scale war.
Strikes against civilian infrastructure – bridges, ports, airports, fuel storage, offshore energy – which would indicate that a full-scale war is imminent.
Israeli strikes north of the Litani River, indicating that the confrontation is expanding and slipping out of the ‘rules of the game’ in place since 8 October, when Hezbollah first began attacks on Israeli military positions.
Hezbollah attacks against Haifa or south of Haifa, indicating the same. Currently, the limit of Hezbollah’s strikes is the north of Safed.
Several civilian deaths on either side, which trigger tit-for-tat responses.
Hezbollah expanding its strikes against Iron Dome. More of these strikes would indicate that the war is entering a new phase, with large barrages at strategic targets and/or civilian targets in Israel’s depth, as opposed to the ongoing border skirmishes.
Israel announcing that it is close to achieving its objectives in Gaza, freeing up resources to fight Hezbollah.
Israel redeploying Iron Dome batteries and/or mobilised reserves from Gaza to the north.
https://modadgeopolitics.substack.com/p/the-lebanese-front
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