Both Israel and South Africa's legal teams will by now probably have been given,
in strictest confidence, an indication of the result by the President. This is
done to head off any unexpected spontaneous eventuality in court. If they
haven't yet, they will first thing tomorrow morning.
But where there are seventeen judges of different nationalities, including one
South African and one Israeli, and several of them are open to influence and
discussion with their national governments, you would have to be extremely
foolish to believe that the decision has not already leaked out to senior
official circles. Which leaves me rather heartened by the fact that South
Africa's foreign minister is flying to The Hague for the decision. That would
not be done if the result is a humiliation.
Where there is humiliation is in the willingness of the Western political class
to abase themselves utterly in acknowledging the plain truth of Israel
crimes. On a macro scale they state it is nonsense to claim that 15,000 dead
children so far might indicate a genocidal intent. On a micro scale, in the past
24 hours Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and the spokesman for the US State Department
have all refused to say, point blank, that it is a crime to shoot an unarmed
civilian carrying a white flag.
I expect tomorrow will be a fudge. The court will say it will decide on the case
in due course, and in the meantime Israel should be careful to take all steps to
comply with international humanitarian law and to take all necessary actions to
crack down on incitement to genocide. Then nothing would change.
If, however, the court does order a ceasefire on the grounds of a prima facie
case for genocide, then I do think you will see a serious moderation of the
actions of western politicians, including a reduction in armaments to
Israel. That will of course not stop Israel.
-- Cont'd at https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/01/armed-conflict-and-the-icj/
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