Will Schryver
@imetatronink
23h
⚡️ Eat, Drink, and Be Merry!

Ukraine War Update
-Memorial Day Weekend, 2024

As best I can gather, five American ATACMS missiles were used in a short-range attack against a Russian S-300 battery recently repositioned in Donetsk region. At least one of the missiles got through and scattered the contents of its cluster munitions warhead, destroying some elements of the battery (see image below).

It was a rare win for the celebrated ATACMS wunderwaffe.

Meanwhile, another curious strike — apparently with long-range UAVs — was made against one of Russia's "over-the-horizon" strategic radar installations. We're talking about a large, multi-structure fixed site (see image below).

This site can only "look" across a third or so of the horizon, and is situated to look from SW to SE to detect ballistic missiles launched from western Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

It is not clear to me how meaningful it is to Crimean air defense. It may have limited utility in that respect.

But the following things occur to me as I consider the development of events in recent weeks, since the introduction into Ukraine of more ATACMS missiles and the notable appearance of relatively large numbers of improved long-range attack drones:

✴️ The evidence is clear to me that what we are seeing is a 100% NATO operation. Sure, they might have a handful of Ukrainian orderlies to fetch coffee and sandwiches and whatnot, but otherwise it's probably 85% American, 10% British, and 4% French "volunteer specialists" running the entire show — from target selection to ISR to pressing the "Fire" button on a control panel.

✴️ So, to a degree arguably unprecedented in this war, we are now seeing a direct battlefield engagement between NATO forces and Russian forces.

✴️ The NATO boys are apparently attempting to degrade Russian air defenses, primarily in the vicinity of Crimea. And they are using mostly cluster-warhead ATACMS missiles to do it. They've also launched a few SCALP cruise missiles, but few if any appear to have evaded interception.

✴️ They have already expended several dozen of these cluster-warhead ATACMS, the overwhelming majority of which have been intercepted — to the point they chose to use FIVE of them to attack a single S-300 battery! This is VERY telling. The Russians have destroyed Patriot batteries with single well-placed Iskander strikes.

✴️ But this also means the US is husbanding its stock of unitary-warhead ATACMS missiles — the kind that would be suited, for example, to a strike against the Kerch Bridge.

✴️ It's not entirely clear how many of the most recent delivery of ~100 ATACMS missiles pack the more powerful unitary warheads. Quite likely most of them, but few if any have been used so far.

✴️ Based on the high Russian interception rate against the ATACMS, and given the relative hardness of a structure like the Kerch Bridge, I figure Team NATO will calculate it is necessary to launch a salvo of 30-50 missiles in order to hopefully achieve a dozen solid strikes against the bridge — which would still be very unlikely to do severe damage.

✴️ That said, I'm very dubious that NATO has sufficient launchers in the theater to mount such a massive salvo.

In any case, that's where we stand here in the last week of May 2024.

The Ukrainian army is in a state of near-collapse.

The Russians are clearly stronger than at any point in this war.

The storehouse of NATO weaponry has been attrited to an astounding and entirely unforeseen extent — almost to the point of effective exhaustion for many of the European NATO countries.

But the empire apparently remains determined, if not outright desperate to string out the affair long enough to preserve the western political status quo.

The Pentagon and Whitehall are understandably frustrated by the relative impotence of their toys versus the toys of the Russian Ministry of Defense, and are intent on finding some way to string together a few meaningful wins while their limited inventory holds out.

For their part, the Russians are able and ever more likely to retaliate against NATO targets beyond the borders of Ukraine — particularly against Perfidious Albion.

And, just to put emphasis on their serious intent, they are conducting a second round of tactical nuclear missile exercises in Belarus.

Here in America, the Memorial Day holiday weekend is upon us. It used to be focused on the honoring of soldiers lost in American wars, but now it's primarily an occasion for celebrating the beginning of summer.

So ... party on, folks. Don't worry about the wind your leaders are sowing in far off lands, nor the harvest of the whirlwind to come.

Eat, drink, and be merry.

https://nitter.poast.org/imetatronink/status/1794438454442635452#m