To Survive, Israel Must Strike Iran Now

If Israel proves incapable of destroying the Iranian nuclear project using conventional weaponry, then it may not have any option but to resort to its nonconventional capabilities

Benny Morris

Jun 30, 2024

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir described Israel's response to the Iran's missile attack on Israel on 13 April as a dardaleh – slang for a weak soccer kick. Reports after Israel's retaliation said the attack had destroyed a small, isolated radar facility not far from Natanz, one of the sites where Iran produces enriched uranium. Unfortunately – as Ben-Gvir is a dangerous, despicable minister –he was right.

The Israeli government – that is, Israel's corrupt and incompetent prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – was afraid that a stronger (and appropriate) response, such as a strike on the Natanz facility itself, would lead to a significant counter-reaction by Iran. Tehran could, for example, activate its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, to launch massive rocket barrages or fire its own missiles at Israeli cities and essential infrastructure facilities.

Someday, the minutes of the limited war cabinet's meetings before the Israeli response may be released. We'll then know whether the generals in the room – Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, former IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, National Unity Party Chairman Benny Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzl Levi – recommended a more powerful strike and whether Netanyahu convinced the cabinet members to settle for the dardaleh strike.

For the past 15 years, Netanyahu has generally acted with with extreme hesitation and restraint in face of Iran's attacks against Israel and its interests, whether committed via its proxies or directly. But far more significantly and worse, his belligerent declarations aside, Netanyahu hasn't done what's necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, even though Iran's leaders endlessly declare their intent to destroy Israel. Did Israel's restraint in 2010-2012 and later stem from a lack of capabilities? Did this deceitful man have other, ulterior motives? There's no way of knowing.

In any case, we have now arrived at the moment of truth and a decision is necessary. According to a slew of reports, Iran is on the threshold of a breakthrough to 90 percent uranium enrichment and has accumulated enough material, if upgraded, to produce a stockpile of nuclear bombs. The attacks against Israel over the past eight months by Iran, its emissaries and its allies – Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah and various militias located in Syria and Iraq – provide sufficient reason to attempt to destroy Iran's strategic capabilities, which include ballistic capabilities.

The world should support and certainly understand such an Israeli operation. But even if it doesn't, surely the country's survival should be more important to its inhabitants than possible international condemnations and even sanctions if they are imposed (though I doubt that serious sanctions would be imposed).

There's no better moment to deliver a strategic blow against Iran, given the current asymmetry in capabilities between the two countries. Israel has a dramatic advantage in aerial capabilities thanks to its advanced F-15 and F-35 stealth aircraft, as well as a striking superiority when it comes to anti-aircraft and anti-missile capabilities. Iran's air force is equipped with inferior aircraft and lacks advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile missile systems. But in the coming years, it is likely that these crucial Israeli advantages will disappear.

But, above all, Israeli has one singular advantage (according to foreign press reports): It possesses a nuclear arsenal, whereas Iran currently only aspires to achieve one. Iran will probably take this asymmetry into account when it considers whether to launch a counterstrike after an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities and infrastructure.

Is Israel capable, using conventional capabilities, of destroying – or at least badly damaging – Iran's missile, drone and rocket production facilities and its nuclear sites, which are scattered over a broad area and at least some of which are buried deep beneath the ground? I don't know, and it's likely that Israel's generals don't, either. War is a realm of imponderables and, to a great degree, luck. But destroying the Iranian nuclear project, and Iran's delivery capacity, is an existential must if Israel is to survive. Given the ayatollahs' deep hatred of Israel and possible irrationality, an Iranian nuclear arsenal will spell Israel's doom.

Once the ayatollahs have nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them, they may well use them against Israel – and leave it to Allah to protect them against Israel's second-strike capabilities. After all, we are dealing here with messianic, religious fanatics.

And even Iran refrains from launching its nuclear weapons, its mere possession of them, in combination with its declared desire and policy to destroy Israel (of which we have seen abundant proof these past nine months), would deter potential investments and immigrants from reaching Israel and cause many good people to flee the country.

Against a backdrop of repeated, future Iranian-orchestrated assaults on Israel a la October 7, Israel would steadily decline and wither away.

Sunni organizations, and perhaps neighboring Sunni countries, would recognize Israel's (and America's) weakness and Iran's strength and quite possibly join the Tehran-led ring of hostile states, and there's no guarantee that the leaders of Europe and the United States – possibly with the dubious Donald Trump rather than the pro-Zionist Biden at the helm – would come to our aid.

All of this must raise the prospect that if Israel proves incapable of destroying the Iranian nuclear project using conventional weaponry, then it may not have any option but to resort to its nonconventional capabilities (unless the United States sends in its own military to the job, which seems an extremely unlikely possibility, given American lack of resolve since its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan).

Again, Israel can expect reprimands from the international media, the ignorant and mindless youngsters on the campuses and assorted world leaders, but it will also enjoy significant understanding if not active support from many in the international community.

I fear we have arrived at a moment of truth and Israel – hopefully, in the coming months, under more competent leadership – must act. Otherwise, Allah yerahmu (may Allah have mercy upon us).

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-06-30/ty-article-opinion/.premium/to-survive-israel-must-strike-iran-now/00000190-69e8-d01f-abbe-7de8d2260000