https://antiimperialistnews.substack.com/p/republicans-are-outflanking-democrats
This does not mean they are the good guys
Jul 18, 2024

Fifteen years after Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize for not being George Bush jr, the Democrats are so hawkish that Republicans are attacking them from the left on war. Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance wants to end the madness in Ukraine and has made a speech explaining that “China has a foreign policy of building roads and bridges, and feeding poor people”. These words come in contrast to his words about China being America’s number one threat.

Vance is saying the Ukraine war is “needlessly costly”, calling for peace talks with Russia, and insisting the idea of Ukraine gaining lost territory is “fantastical”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m under no illusions this is anything other than naked opportunism. The Republicans might be backing away from unwinnable fights with Russia and China, but they are determined to bomb Gaza and Iran into the stone age.

Vance recently said: “If you’re going to punch the Iranians, you punch them hard”, and he criticised Biden for prolonging “Israel’s war to actually take out Hamas” by failing to support Netanyahu. These are not exactly the words of a peacemaker, but Vance also said he wants to “invigorate peace talks” after Hamas has been eliminated. This is a message that will resonate with many Americans, even if it’s not an entirely honest one. Vance is talking about partnering with Sunni states to take on Iran and boasting about the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. We’ve already seen a demonstration that Iran is capable of overwhelming Israel’s iron dome so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how destructive escalation could be.

The military industrial complex is giving us a choice: either you get World War III with Russia, or you accept a regional war in the Middle East that could easily escalate into World War III. Peace is not on offer from either party. We are simply offered different paths towards destruction, but the Republican path at least sounds like the less crazy one.

The fact Democrats could be outflanked by Republicans being one millimetre to the left of them on foreign policy is as damning an indictment as I can think of. While the Democrats have always been pro-war, it was their role to look like the sensible ones. Somehow Biden has achieved a role-reversal and that as much as anything else shows what a disaster his leadership has been.

The Democrats are making it easy for Russia to do their propaganda, with Lavrov pointing out “Israel's military operation in Gaza produced twice as many civilian deaths in ten months as the ten years of the conflict in Ukraine.” This is perfectly true and illustrates how the US and Israel are currently the biggest bad guys.

The public are starting to see this truth and desperately looking for a way to avoid nuclear Armageddon. This has created the perfect opportunity for a shameless populist like Trump who believes in absolutely nothing. His pick of JD Vance as his running mate has reportedly left Ukraine reeling.

Vance has questioned whether the Ukraine war is in US interests, and CIA newspaper the Kyiv Independent is worried a Trump administration might force Ukraine to the negotiating table. Wait… so you’re saying the option of negotiation is available and you’ve been choosing not to take it? That’s quite the admission, guys.

The Kyiv Independent is wailing that Ukraine is at the forefront of the fight for liberal democracy, forgetting how many of us have been let down by liberal democracy. Some of us do not want to fight for investment firms that are richer than entire continents, thank you very much.

Liberal democracy is the reason Zelensky is meeting with BlackRock and JP Morgan who now basically own Ukraine, or what’s left of it. Liberal democracy is when corporations own the ground you walk on and the air you breathe, but you get to wave a rainbow flag so you feel better about your slavery.

The Kyiv Independent laments a Trump administration would suggest a peace deal based on current lines, meaning Russia controls the Russian-speaking parts that want independence from Ukraine anyway. We would stop needlessly throwing men and boys into the meat grinder and would halt the eastward expansion of NATO. I fail to see a downside.

If you don’t want Trump to win, pointing out he is the route to peace is hardly the best way to go about it. You’re basically doing PR for him.

As has been pointed out many times, the Ukraine war probably can’t continue beyond 2025 without Washington support (and even that would be a stretch). The US has been responsible for 40% of the funding for this war, but it’s not just about money, it’s about supplying Patriots, HIMARS and other equipment that Europe simply does not have enough of. Unfortunately for Zelensky, the US lacks the industrial capacity to keep supplying Ukraine and replenish its own military, so I think we all know where this is heading.

Germany plans to halve its military aid for Ukraine and Europe seems torn between continuing an unwinnable fight and giving up. Our confused leaders are fantasising about Putin being involved in a plane crash like Prigozhin, but anyone who thinks this would lead to victory for Ukraine and an era of liberal democracy in Russia is delusional.

The madness of trying to defeat Putin is showing Ukrainians the true face of western liberal democracy. Their country is going to be left looking like all the other countries that were liberated by a NATO intervention. It’s going to cost hundreds of billions to rebuild Ukraine and guess who will be expected to foot the bill? Western tax payers who’ve been asked to foot the bill for the war. The UK can’t have £3 billion a year to lift the two-child welfare cap because Ukraine is getting that money instead. It’s a matter of time until the people ravaged by austerity object to sending our tax money abroad. But we would have a moral obligation to rebuild Ukraine because our failed strategy has led to its destruction.

From an ethical standpoint, I would have no issue with the rebuilding effort, were it not for the fact we would be filling the coffers of BlackRock and JP Morgan. Of course, it’s entirely possible the west chooses not to rebuild Ukraine, so what happens when the most corrupt country in Europe is left in ruins and the neo-Nazis are armed up to the eyeballs. Ukraine could be about to become a failed state. Slow clap for everyone who orchestrated the Maidan Coup.

Ukraine does not seem willing to go down without a fight, and while the average man on the street might not be keen on conscription, the government and military appear prepared to battle to the end.

Worryingly, Ukraine is focusing its resources on a terrifying new technology: autonomous AI-powered drones. Yes, murder robots that fly in the sky and make their own decisions so they are immune to jamming are now a thing. “I can’t possibly imagine any consequences to this,” says everyone who has never seen a science-fiction movie.

These AI drones are far from state of the art: some can be knocked together in four days and use a targeting system based on mobile phone technology that only costs $150 per drone. The Ukrainians are resorting to such drones because conventional first person view (FPV) drones only have a 10% success rate, thanks to jamming, and the human operators have difficulty managing large drone swarms.

There are 250 start ups operating in sheds across Ukraine, creating a wave of new and dangerous technologies with no real oversight. Swarms of hundreds of autonomous drones are now possible, and needless to say, AI experts are worried about where this could be heading. Hint: it’s nowhere good.

AI-powered drones probably won’t be the only high-risk introduction to the battlefield this year. There has been much talk of Europe sending F-16s to Ukraine, with the latest country offering the US-made jets being Greece, but Ukrainians are wondering if they’ll ever get to use them. We keep hearing the word “soon”, but no one wants to talk about potential Russian responses. How, for example, do we act if Russia takes out a Ukrainian airfield with a tactical nuke? Given they would see this as a pre-emptive strike, such action hardly seems unthinkable.

Russia is changing its military doctrine to allow nuclear first strikes (which are currently only allowed if the existence of Russia is threatened) and Russian TV is showing which European cities would be targeted by nuclear weapons in the event of World War III. This is what the introduction of F-16s could lead to, and I’m sceptical as to whether our plan is even practical, given it takes at least five years to train a pilot.

Are we really putting this highly sophisticated technology in the hands of untrained Ukrainians and risking the humiliation of F-16s being destroyed? Or are we supplying the pilots too, meaning direct NATO involvement? Imagine the PR disaster for the US if it starts supplying game-changing weaponry to Ukraine and Russia crushes it anyway. The aura of US invincibility would be well and truly over.

The way to save face would be to negotiate peace and blame military failures on Ukrainian incompetence which would be unfair, given NATO is responsible for strategy, but that’s probably what is going to happen. It’s foolish to make predictions in this increasingly unpredictable world, but I suspect the military industrial complex is about to give up on Ukraine and spend 2025 turning its attention to Iran. One thing you can guarantee is they will not be giving up on is the idea of war itself.