but I have to say, it's tracking pretty well so far...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/31/harris-democrats-swing-states-election

Exclusive: Surge in Democratic enthusiasm raises hopes of winning swing states

Memos show massive jump in contributions and volunteers for Kamala Harris campaign, in addition to $200m haul

With less than 100 days to go in the election cycle, the launch of Kamala Harris’s campaign has injected newfound energy into her party, raising Democrats’ hopes of winning battleground states that once seemed irretrievably lost to Donald Trump.

According to a set of memos exclusively shared with the Guardian, Democratic parties in battleground states saw a dramatic surge in contributions and volunteer sign-ups in the past week, in addition to the Harris campaign’s record-breaking fundraising haul of $200m.

The memos, which were shared by the coordinated campaign between Harris for President and the Democratic National Committee, offer some promising signs for the vice-president. In Georgia, where Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by just 12,000 votes or 0.2 points in 2020, more than 1,000 new volunteers signed up in the 24 hours after Harris announced her candidacy, marking the largest single-day total of the campaign. Georgia Democrats also collected $200,000, as donations to the state party increased by 320% compared with the week before.

The show of force is notable given that earlier polls indicated Trump had a solid lead in Georgia. An Emerson College poll conducted earlier this month showed Trump with a 5-point advantage over Biden, 44% to 39%, but the outlet’s most recent survey showed Harris had cut that lead down to 2 points.

“Democrats up and down the ticket are seeing unprecedented support from voters across the nation,” said Abhi Rahman, deputy communications director for the DNC. “We are confident that in these battleground states, Democrats will win at every level of the ballot in November.”

The pattern has played out in other states where Trump’s lead over Biden appeared to be growing in the weeks after the president’s disastrous debate performance. In Arizona, where Biden won by about 10,000 votes or 0.3 points in 2020, more than 2,000 new Democratic campaign volunteers signed up in the past week. The Emerson College polls conducted in the past month show that Harris slashed Trump’s lead in Arizona from 10 points to 5 points.

In the key battleground state of Wisconsin, where Biden won by 0.6 points in 2020, the state party raked in $400,000 over the past week after out-raising its Republican counterpart by a margin of 14 to 1 in the first half of the year.

Wisconsin Democrats also saw 3,500 new volunteers sign up for the campaign since Harris entered the race. More than 2,000 Wisconsin volunteers completed a shift in the past week, with at least 175,000 voters contacted. That outreach could prove decisive in a state that was decided by roughly 20,000 votes four years ago.

Before Biden withdrew from the race this month, most polls indicated he was running a close race against Trump in Wisconsin. But one particularly worrisome survey conducted for AARP in the days after the debate found Trump had a 6-point lead there. The most recent Emerson College polling showed Harris and Trump tied, 47% to 47%, in Wisconsin.