Good points as always John, thanks. I haven't looked into the effects of the little ice age much, so that seems like a good book to read. Farmers must have been complaining something fierce! XR types like Hallam and Bendell have stressed the fragility of agriculture entering the hotter climate, using the chilling phrase 'multiple breadbasket failure'. Hallam in particular has personal experience of this being himself a veg farmer in Wales before a few bad seasons convinced him that activism was more important. You probably know...

Anyway, I'm getting a more direct sense of that this year than I have previously. Generally I've thought that if you grow enough crops something will always do well even if everything else is a flop. But this year... well, if we were totally self reliant we'd be starving - a sobering thought! The highlanders were probably smart to concentrate on cattle and dairy, with oats, barley and 'bere' (a locally adapted variety of barley) supplying the carbs until the potato came along. But famine is a part of the agricultural experience, being dependent on a small handful of domesticated crops with ruin if they fail. The last time it happened in Scotland with the failure of potatoes in the 1840s & 50s elites exploited the situation to clear people off the land, sponsoring emigration to the colonies and insisting that 'lazy', 'indolent' highlanders turn to industrial modes of production in the lowlands or cities, their homes, farms & shielings to be torn down and replaced by sheep or deer stalking - more profitable enterprises better able to pay high rents.

So, all the factors play into eachother, and yes it's likely to be incredibly messy, with social cohesiveness a big part of how things play out as you describe. Luckily everyone in this country is firmly on the same page and not at all split up into multiple ideological factions already at eachother's throats before collapse has even got underway (!)

cheers,
I