https://antiimperialistnews.substack.com/p/israel-finally-succeeds-in-provoking
We are closer than ever to regional war
Aug 25, 2024

The totally objective BBC has reported that Israel has launched “pre-emptive strikes” against Hezbollah, after Israel spent the last few weeks bombing Lebanon and assassinating its leaders. Hezbollah has responded to Israel’s aggression and this, of course, means Israel is the victim here. Netanyahu is definitely not trying to start a regional war, causing unimaginable civilian casualties to save his own skin.

Hezbollah finally launched a major attack in retaliation to Israel’s “pre-emptive” bombings, which include the killing of Commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. It was likely also motivated by the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was suggested at the time, Iran might use a “proxy” to attack Israel and it remains to be seen whether there was Iranian involvement here.

The Israeli government has declared a 48-hour state of emergency and Hezbollah's leader Hasan Nasrallah is expected to give a speech later today. It may sound melodramatic, but the fate of the region, and perhaps the world, might depend on what happens over the next 48 hours. While all the sensibles are insisting neither side wants war, one side clearly does, and the other side is more than willing to oblige.

The sad fact is neither the Lebanese government nor military will be involved in war, but Lebanese civilians will suffer and die, and we will be told they are all Hezbollah. Israel is already going with the human shields argument, accusing Hezbollah of storing rockets right next to civilian homes. We’ve seen this playbook before and know exactly what Israel is planning.

Make no mistake, Netanyahu would be happy to do to Lebanon, and even Iran, what he has done to Gaza. Problem is Israel could end up looking much the same.

Like Iran, Hezbollah has spent weeks saying it will not launch a retaliatory attack as long as Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel, on the other hand, has said it will continue bombing Gaza even if there is a ceasefire.

All Israel had to do was agree to end its genocide and we could have avoided escalation. Instead, it continued with assassinations and “pre-emptive strikes” in a determined effort to provoke a response.

Of course, the BBC has decided it counts as self-defence, even when Israel strikes first, over and over again, and 80% of missiles exchanged between the two countries are fired by Israel.

This is the same BBC that has just scolded a guest discussing Gaza for using the word “genocide”. We’re not allowed to accurately describe what Israel is doing because the BBC must remain “impartial” when a genocide is taking place. I wonder if they adopted this approach during the Rwanda genocide.

Israel sent over 100 fighter jets into Lebanon, attacking missile launch sites which it claims were about to attack Tel Aviv. However, Israel seems to have accomplished little other than a few explosions in the desert and the deaths of three villagers. A drone strike reportedly killed a single fighter from the Amal movement (a Hezbollah ally), but that’s hardly going to change the outcome of a war, is it?

Israel will, of course, tell us the villagers were Hezbollah, and if war starts, it will tell us every school and hospital in Lebanon is a Hezbollah base. You will be banned from TikTok if you dispute this, you terrorist lover.

Netanyahu claims to have destroyed thousands of short-range targets, mainly rocket launcher barrels, at 40 sites in southern Lebanon, but that sounds like an exaggeration. We will know if Israel’s claim about Hezbollah targeting Tel Aviv is true soon enough. Hezbollah still has the capability to do that, but so far it has focused on military sites. It looks like Netanyahu wants to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Hezbollah launched 323 Katyusha rockets at 11 Israeli bases and barracks, saying this attack will open the way for drones to penetrate deep into Israel. It has been reported on social media that Israel’s Hadera power plant was damaged, but I couldn’t verify this claim so take it with a pinch of salt, unless I’ve missed something.

There are reports that Hezbollah hit a Dvora class fast boat off the coast of Nahariya, killing at least one Israeli soldier and injuring several others, some critically. However, I’ve read suggestions that one of Israel’s interceptor missiles may have misfired and struck the boat. Regardless, it looks as though the Israeli Navy is vulnerable.

Israel has informed us two homes in Metula were hit by Hezbollah anti-tank missiles and would like to emphasise this is a war crime, somehow forgetting it has spent 11 months blowing up residential buildings.

If you drive from one end of Gaza to the other, you will struggle to find a single residential building left standing. In fact, you will struggle to complete your journey without your vehicle being bombed by the IDF, but please tell me more about Hezbollah’s war crimes.

When it’s not crying about war crimes, Israel is insisting it has sustained very little damage, but its problem is that any conflict would prove incredibly costly, even if it won, and victory would be almost impossible to achieve.

While I don’t have figures in front of me, launching 100 fighter jets must have cost a hell of a lot of money, and then there is Hezbollah’s response which has targeted the iron dome. Hezbollah reportedly fired several hundred missiles but has about 150,000 more in its stockpiles.

When Iran launched its missile assault, it cost Israel an estimated $1.3 billion and cost Iran maybe a few million. Expect much the same in any exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah. The thing about asymmetric warfare is it does not always favour the superpower. A former IDF general has warned that if the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah continues, “Israel will collapse in no more than a year.”

Israel’s economy is reportedly dependent on a few hundred individuals, and if they were to flee the country, along with swathes of the public, Israel would be in serious trouble. Some claim its economy is already in a “doom loop”, but Netanyahu is so worried about evading prison, he doesn’t care if wider war is affordable, let alone winnable.

Netanyahu is, of course, expecting Israel’s allies to come to his rescue, given Biden has reiterated the US will support “Israel’s right to defend itself”. If that happens, we will get a worldwide recession and probably World War III. You okay with doing all that for a war criminal?

Israelis are now speaking of the hell they’re living through as they tolerate the sound of air raid sirens for one day. There are over two million people in Gaza who wish the inconvenience of air raid sirens was their only problem. Of course, if war starts, Israelis will be at risk of more than being woken up in the night. This is all the more reason to agree to peace.

If the 40,000 confirmed civilian deaths in Gaza weren’t enough to make Netanyahu’s regime think twice, you would hope the risk of their own civilians dying would, but I’m guessing they care about the Israeli public as much as they care about the Israeli hostages the IDF has bombed.

Everyone is using the word “ceasefire”, including Israel’s neighbours, allies and enemies, but Israel keeps firing bombs and no one does anything to stop it. I saw one liberal genius argue there would be no point halting arms sales to Israel because it would carry on fighting anyway.

“Whoever harms us, we harm them”, Netanyahu said, forgetting who is doing most of the harm.

Israel Katz is insisting his country does not want regional war and is simply defending itself from an “axis if evil” that consists of Iran and its proxies. Presumably, the “evil” refers to their responses to Israeli aggression and attempts to bring an end to a genocide. It’s worth repeating for emphasis, this “axis of evil” has offered to cease hostilities if Israel agrees to a peace deal with Hamas. If Joe Biden stopped the arms packages, this would all go away overnight, but Israel’s axis of non-evil wants genocide to continue.