on October 10, 2024, 11:56 pm
This blog has been following the writings of Emmanuel Todd for some time:
Emmanuel Todd on Europe - December 19, 2008
Seeing Social Decline As A National Security Threat May Change Conservative Policies - November 30, 2018
Transgender - The Inability To Distinguish Facts From Wishes - March 14, 2024
In the later one I had quoted a New York Times review of Todd's latest book:
This Prophetic Academic Now Foresees the West’s Defeat (archived) - New York Times, Mar 9 2024
American leadership is failing: That is the argument of an eccentric new book that since January has stood near the top of France’s best-seller lists. It is called “La Défaite de l’Occident” (“The Defeat of the West”). Its author, Emmanuel Todd, is a celebrated historian and anthropologist who in 1976, in a book called “The Final Fall,” used infant-mortality statistics to predict that the Soviet Union was headed for collapse.
...
While Mr. Todd is, again, not judgmental on sexual matters, he is judgmental on intellectual ones. The inability to distinguish facts from wishes astounds him at every turn of the Ukraine war. The American hope early in the war that China might cooperate in a sanctions regime against Russia, thereby helping the United States refine a weapon that would one day be aimed at China itself, is, for Mr. Todd, a “delirium.”
The Italian version of "The Defeat of the West", Todd's latest book, has just been published. It is the occasion for an interview with Corriere Di Bologna. The answers Todd is giving during the interview deserve your attention (edited machine translation):
Q:You argue that Europe has delegated the representation of the West to the United States and is now paying the price. How do you think this trend can be changed?
A: “In the present state we cannot do anything else. A war has begun. It is the outcome of this war that will decide the fate of Europe. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, European submission to the Americans would be prolonged for a century. If, as I believe, the United States is defeated, NATO will disintegrate and Europe will be left free.
Even more important than a Russian victory will be the halting of the Russian army on the Dnepr and the unwillingness of the Putin regime to attack western Europe militarily. With 144 million people, a shrinking population and 17 million square kilometers, the Russian state is already struggling to occupy its territory. Russia will have neither the means nor the desire to expand once the borders of pre-communist Russia are reconstituted. Western Russophobic hysteria fantasizing about the desire for Russian expansion in Europe is simply ridiculous to a serious historian.
The psychological shock awaiting Europeans will be to realize that NATO does not exist to protect us but to control us.”
Since the beginning of the recent phase of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, I have argued that Russia does not want to take all of Ukraine but only those parts which, up to 1922, had been traditional parts of Russia before the communists added them to the Ukrainian borderland.
It is nice to see that Emmanuel Todd agrees with this analysis:
It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
Etc.
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