on January 19, 2026, 4:00 pm
The result it gives: one Russian casualty for every ten Ukrainians tends to propose numbers almost exactly the antithesis of those given out by the Ukrainian regime, which suggested this was a reasonable approach and that the Ukrainian numbers were made by simply reversing the truth.
The following tweet suggests the reality may in fact be a lot worse for Ukraine:
Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
20h
A leak of patient data from the Russian military medical system back in mid-2024 seems to have flown under the radar of the commentariat for pretty simple reasons: Russians aren't going to comment on a leak and the data is devastating for Ukraine.⬇️
Of particular note is a data point that Russian forces, as of mid-June 2024, had suffered a mere 3200 amputation wounds - including minor amputations of fingers and toes. There were some 5,283 major amputations resulting in the loss of limbs suffered by US forces in Vietnam compared to 58,281 deaths, a ratio of 11:1.
Assuming that Russian medical care in Ukraine is similar in nature to that US forces were able to provide during the Vietnam War (a reasonable assumption), this would suggest Russian forces had suffered fewer than 40,000 personnel KIA by June 2024. At the time the most conservative generally accepted estimate of Russian losses in Ukraine, Mediazona's, was standing at almost 90,000 based on a database of social media postings of inherently dubious provenance.
A release of similar medical data from the Ukrainian side several months later in early 2025 stated that their own forces had suffered some 120,000 amputations during the war to that point. I will note that this astonishing ratio - thirty to forty Ukrainians to a single Russian, comparable to that between France and Germany in 1940 including the mass surrender of the French Army - also exactly tracks that of exchanged bodies for the last year and a half.
Food for thought.
https://nitter.net/ArmchairW/status/2012963724118643086#m
Responses