18 Feb 2026 · 7:28 PM UTC
https://nitter.net/S_Mahendrarajah/status/2024204471354495476

Iran, Russia, and China have stakes in bloodying US in Mideast. Trump painted
himself into a corner: if his "big, beautiful armada" does not yield benefits
that will allow him to "declare victory" and skedaddle, he looks weak (TACO). If
Iran concedes with a gun against its head, it looks weak. Israel sees the
buildup of US assets as an opportunity it shouldn't waste.

"Israel MUST fight now... .the magnitude of the force the US has now
concentrated to the region will not be seen again" (See
https://nitter.net/imetatronink/status/2024187952524669029)

Iran's Stake
A Comprehensive Solution
Negotiations will not yield the sanctions relief that Iran desires. Trump can
offer some relief through executive orders, but for substantive relief, the US
Knesset must first repeal anti-Iran legislation. Iran, given its bitter
experiences with JCPOA, will insist on a treaty under US Const. Art. II, § 2,
but the Colony cannot offer anything of substance without Home Office approval.

Only the "nuclear file" is being discussed between Iran and Israel (Witkoff &
Kushner) in the Oman-mediated talks. If, hypothetically, minor sanctions relief
emerges in exchange for minor concessions by Tehran, what will happen to the
manifold anti-Iran projects that the US, UK, EU, and Israel have been
aggressively advancing for five decades?

MEK, based in NATO-land (Albania), will continue its violent activities. Given
MEK's roles in the Twelve-Day War and foreign-sponsored riots of Jan. 2026,
Tehran wants it neutralized. Thus so for Kurd (PJAK) and Baluch (Jaysh al-Adl)
separatists. Monarchists, Manoto TV, Iran International, BBC Persian, etc. will
fade into irrelevance if support is withdrawn.

Absent a comprehensive solution of outstanding issues, the west will continue to
delegitimize and destabilize Iran. Socio-economic discontent in Iran will
simmer.

How does Iran secure a comprehensive soluition? See "Assessment" (below).

Russia's Stake
The Kremlin "discovered" Iran in 2022. After JCPOA (2015), Russia invested
virtually nothing in Iran (cf. China). Russia signed the INSTC agreement in 2000
but sat on its butt until the Ukraine War (2022) forced it to seek allies. Since
2022, Moscow has come to value its access to the Persian Gulf.

Who controls the Persian Gulf, therefore, is important to Moscow. The Kremlin
does not want a US-controlled regime at its underbelly.

Imagine What it Means for Russia if Iran were (back) under US domination:
Proliferation of US military bases; CIA operations centers concocting dastardly
schemes against Mother Russia; NSA listening posts; US agitation in the Caspian
Sea and Caucasus (Azerbaijan is already begging for a beatdown; Armenia and
Georgia are shaky); US Navy controlling the Persian Gulf (Fifth Fleet HQ is in
Bahrain) and closing the Persian Gulf to Russian naval - and possibly commercial
- vessels.

Bottom Line: Putin said to Bush (16 June 2001), "we [Russia and USSR] have a
complex history with Iran." I doubt Putin wants to return to those dark days.

China's Stake
China has strategic interests in Iran. It is investing billions (unconfirmed
reports claim $400 billion over the 25-year strategic agreement), and developed
two rail lines from China to Iran via Central Asia. One railway became
operational in June 2025. Work on the 2nd rail is advanced. The lines are
China's low-cost access to Iran and neighboring states (China has major
long-term plans for AFG and Iraq).

Military Value of Railways: the rail lines are intended to ship Iranian crude
oil to China if the US Navy harasses maritime shipments. US blockades of
Venezuela and Cuba confirm the merit of China's foresight. Relatedly, if Iran
seals the Straits of Hormuz, China still receives oil and Iran keeps earning.

Imagine What it Means for China if Iran were under US domination: China loses
billions in investments and access to Iran's 92-million person market; and
railway and maritime access to the Persian Gulf (cf. China has <$1 bil. invested
in Israel; market of 9 mil. head). Its long-term Mideast strategy will be in
tatters.

China's Energy Security: China's petroleum purchases are intentionally
diversified: Russia (17.7%), Saudi (14%), Iran (14%), Iraq (11.50%), UAE
(5.75%), Oman (6.23%); balance from Angola, Brazil, etc. If Iran falls, US can
end/reduce Iranian oil sales to China and pressure Gulf Arab states to
end/reduce exports, forcing China to depend on Russian oil & gas - dependency
means erosion of Beijing's preeminent position in its nascent partnership with
the Kremlin.

US Domination of Global Oil: If Iran falls, US will exploit its oil & gas and
dominate global supplies (and thus pricing) and preserve the (dying) dollar as
the global reserve currency. End of BRICS+ and multipolarity.

Back to the Persian Gulf: Who controls the Persian Gulf is critical for Beijing,
too. China's military and dual-use satellites delivered real-time "Intelligence,
Surveillance, and Reconnaissance" (ISR) - "eyes and ears" - for Iran in the
Twelve-Day War (https://nitter.net/S_Mahendrarajah/status/1967633785367003371)
and is helping Iran track USS Lincoln
(https://nitter.net/S_Mahendrarajah/status/2018414149160616297) - and US assets
being deployed in Mideast. MizarVision's scaled down images that we see on X are
from China's dual-use sats (probably Jilin-1 constellation). Iranian cargo
flights from China were recently logged by "Twitter randos."

China will keep supporting Iran because it stands to lose a great deal in the
short-term and long-term if it does not; and for bonus points, Beijing is ticked
off at Israel-Taiwan military cooperation (AIPAC in Taiwan:
https://nitter.net/ChingteLai/status/1983054946460414033). China will trade
losses of investments in Israel if it can retain Iran and the Iranian market -
and give US a black eye as bonus.

Assessment
Concentration of about one-third of US Navy, big chunk of USAF (drones,
fighters, cargo planes, ISR planes), and available Patriot and THAAD batteries
and interceptors into a few square kilometers within the 2,000km radius of
Iran's missiles is a gift - for Iran, China, and Russia - if they choose to
accept it.

Iran: Iran will only receive a comprehensive deal if it beats Israel like a
drum, forcing Netanyahu to order Governor-General Trump and the US Knesset to
offer Iran a peace treaty. Dmitri Medvedev wrote (31 July 2024): "a full-scale
war is the only way to a shaky peace in the region."

Russia: Military deliveries from Russia to Iran continue, but Su-35 jets are
missing from action. Unless Putin sends Russian Air Force jets from the Caucasus
- possibly with Iranian Air Force markings - to engage USAF and IDF, there is
little Russia can do militarily. Russian ISR support is negligible relative to
PLA's; however, Russia has HUMINT assets in Israel (SVR agents among 1
mil. Israelis from ex-USSR). Russia knows there is value to destroying US assets
in the Middle East: NATO, already crumbling, will fall apart once it becomes
clear that Europeans cannot hide behind US's skirts and poke the bear. Will
Putin act?

China: Beijing has everything to gain by letting Iran go hog wild on the
US. China can take Taiwan without firing a shot or losing a single soldier if
Iran bloodies the US. How stupid would the Taiwanese have to be to rely on a
military that couldn't defend Israel?

Thoughts
A senior Russian analytical voice said, "we must stop this 'America First
juggernaut' before it comes for us," echoing Ben Franklin's "we must all hang
together or we will all hang separately." Ali Larijani had productive meetings
with Putin and Kremlin officials. Another senior Iranian official was in
Beijing.

I thought about Ayatollah Khamenei's fiery words of 17 Feb. I tend to roll eyes
and dismiss Iranian statements as bombast: while Beijing keeps mum and gets
things done, Tehran is often "full of sound and fury... ." But this a.m., I
thought more about the Boss's words. "Does the Ayatollah know something we
don't?"

Apologies for the long post. If it's any consolation, I could have written a
thesis on this subject! 😉