7 Mar 2026
https://alonmizrahi.substack.com/p/day-7-colonial-disarray-and-irans

17:28 in
If Iran has the power to destroy Israel in a day, which I believe it has. I
totally believe that Iran has the military might to end Israel in one day. In
one day, b/c the numbers of missiles that the West tells us that Iran has, has
nothing to do with reality - 2000, 3000, we destroyed 80% of the launchers,
65%. Every day they come up with new nonsense, with new BS.

Iran has the power to end Israel whenever it decides to do so. But Iran's
challenge in this war, and this may surprise you, is not how to win it. They're
going to win it, 100%, there's no doubt. The Iranian challenge is to win this
war, in a way that will not cause Israel or the US to drop nuclear weapons on
Iran. This is the real challenge. This is why they are behaving the way they are
behaving. They could launch a full-on suicide war, End of Days war, and destroy
Israel and destroy all the Arab countries, destroy West Asia for a hundred
years, but this is not what they are looking to do. They don't want to cause
Israel or its coalition of Western whores to be so alarmed and panicked by what
Iran is doing to Israel, especially to Israel, that they would consider using
nuclear bombs against Iran.

So, Iran has to always let Israel and the West be seen as leading the
aggression. Leading Iran, this is why Iran never started this war. It was
dragged into it, and they waited, they waited until the moment they are being
attacked. They didn't launch a pre-emptive strike, even though they surely knew
it was coming. B/c they have satellites, and China has satellites and Russia has
satellites and so on and spies and so on.

In terms of perception, which they have to manage carefully, they have to always
present Iran as having been attacked. And now no-one has any doubt that this is
the case. Now once Iran has been attacked, it needs to escalate its response
also taking into account tomorrow. They don't want to ruin West Asia if they
don't have to.

If they can cause Arab regimes, Arab govts to distance themselves from the US
and Israel, this is a net gain for Iran.

...

So, the Iranians have to tread carefully between all these different
factors. Now, Israel also knows that if it chooses to nuke Iran, then it is
doomed. B/c no matter what kind of weapons Israel uses, it cannot neutralise
Iran's missile and drone power, and maybe other stuff we don't know about
yet. The bases where Iran keeps its strategic missiles for such a scenario,
haven't been used yet. No-one knows where they are and they cannot be bombed,
even with nuclear weapons. So, we have this balance where Israel and Iran know
that each has the ability to finish the other, but none of them can allow itself
to act prematurely. And Iran especially, cannot bring Israel to a dramatic end,
b/c this will ignite nuclear attacks from the US and Israel. And Iran doesn't
want this - Iran is not suicidal. So, Iran doesn't need to be seen as
destroying, killing Israel directly. What Iran needs to be seen as doing, in
terms of the perception they are managing, is cutting open Israel's veins and
letting Israel die on itself. And I think this is what they are aiming to do,
and they know that the whole world know that they still have a lot of power
left, to respond if someone decides to act foolishly. This is the Iranian
calculus as I see it. They need to be very calculated and careful, b/c if they
saturated Israel with missiles, they can finish Israel in two hours, but then
they will be nuked. Then the US will use this an excuse to wipe them, use 50
atomic weapons against Iran and finish Iran. But if Israel is the one always
escalating, now bombing hospitals, bombing civilian neighbourhoods and Iran is
seen as responding and reacting in kind, and if Iran is picking apart Israel,
step by step, one piece of the puzzle after the other, then the chances of such
a dramatic response to what they're doing is much smaller.

So, this is one part of it. The second part of it is, and this is how the
Iranians are acting so wisely, they are focusing now on removing the American
threat from their immediate vicinity, from their region. This has been their
main focus and they have tremendous success in carrying this mission out. They
drove the Americans out of West Asia, basically, in a week. In another week,
that's going to be it. B/c American ships have nowhere to dock and American
planes have nowhere to land, and this is it. But what Iran is also doing, it is
forcing Arab countries and Arab societies to make a choice. This is why it also
didn't start immediately with uncontrollable violent anger directed at its Arab
neighbours, although some of them deserved it. This is how they worked
strategically - they are leaving them choices. Are you going to distance
yourself from Israel or the US, or are we going to break this part? Your digital
infrastructure, your ports, your oil, and so on and so on. And they all know,
every Arab neighbour that Iran has, knows that Iran has the power to destroy
them altogether, incluing Saudi Arabia. If Iran focuses this kind of violent,
dramatic effort at one country or two countries or five countries in West Asia,
they are going down. They can't withstand this kind of attack, but now it's
forcing them to choose. Now it's telling them, this is Judgement Day, this is
Judgement Day. Are you willing to stick with Israel and the US and risk your
very existence, and the gradual economic demise that we are causing you, every
day gradually, in a very strategic manner, or will you wake up to reality and
pull back and return to your Arab and Muslim roots, and stand with the
resistance and push Israel and the US away? And already we are seeing signs that
this is happening. And again, by being strategic, Iranians know that 90% of
Arabs in West Asia, now support what they are doing.