Policy Tensor @policytensor
17 Mar 2026 · 6:42 AM UTC
https://nitter.net/policytensor/status/2033796114223181946

It's not just Hormuz.

Consider the Iranian power revealed in this war.

It has absorbed an all-out attack by the US and Israel, including a deep
decapitation attack that removed the top few levels of leadership of the main
organs of the state, and not only lived to tell the tale but stayed in the
fight.

Despite absorbing this massive attack at the heart of the nation-state, Iran has
basically wrecked all US bases in the region, pushing US forces back a thousand
miles.

It has partially blinded US forces by taking out so many (all?) US radars in the
region, so that the US is forced to rush E-3 recon planes to do the battlefield
recon on which modern military ops depend.

It has downed a number of US drones, warplanes and aerial refueling tankers.

It has attacked every state across the gulf simultaneously, and intimidated them
all to eat the punishment. It has kept up the punishment of Israel, with most of
the damage suppressed by Israeli censors, which seems to have been considerable.

It is sustaining the largest missile and drone attack in history that shows no
sign of slowing down. It is likely to keep going for a lot longer than people
suspect.

It has destroyed a dozen or so ships in the gulf.

It has established effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, and started to
impose cumulating costs on the US and its allies.

It has allies and proxies in Iraq and Lebanon who are doing real damage to the
enemy.

It has conducted at least one successful cyberattack so far.

And it holds lots of escalation options in reserve: the Houthis, the land
threat, more damaging targeting options, and asymmetric threats. Not to mention
the implied threat of an insurgency war, deterring an invasion by US ground
forces.

You have to understand that a country that can do all this under an all-out
attack by the United States is a formidable power. British, France or Germany
are not capable of this.

If you have not been surprised and impressed, you are not paying attention.

--------------------------------------------------

| (Quoted Tweet)
Policy Tensor @policytensor
17 Mar 2026 · 12:51 AM UTC

Agree with most of your argument @ProfessorPape. But you're mistaken to think
that the US can walk away and book a limited loss.

Walking away is not an option. It would leave Iran in firm control of Hormuz,
and, in effect, as the regional hegemon of the gulf, as @gideonrachman but it
this morning.

So, war termination is not a solved problem here by any means. In fact, even if
Witkoff can secure a ceasefire with the Iranians (which means he would have to
cede a whole lot), that would still leave Iran with a gun cocked at Hormuz
permanently.

Short of occupying Iran and emplacing a pro-Western puppet regime, there are no
decisive solutions here at all.

A potential partial solution is to bring Iran back into the international
system; make it sign up for an inspection regime; and lay down a progressive
pathway towards full sanctions relief. The goal would be to moderate Iranian
behavior and dissuade proliferation.

As for the Hormuz weapon, which had been latent all along but is now
manifest. The genie is out of the bottle and cannot be funneled back in. All
that can be done is turn the knob off sooner rather than later; then bracket it
and move on. I see no reason why its existence cannot be forgotten, given the
standards of the Western press.