https://nitter.net/DD_Geopolitics/status/2043187353255358537#m

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
🇺🇸 Trump is sharing articles floating a US naval blockade of Iran, the "Venezuela playbook," after talks fail. Here's what that would actually look like.

The idea is the US Navy takes control of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island strangling Iran's economy while cutting China and India off from their key oil source simultaneously.

The problem: Iran is not Venezuela.

🔸 The strait is only 33km wide at its narrowest point, every ship that enters is within range of Iran's entire coastal arsenal
🔸 Iran's Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles have a 300km range and are designed specifically to hit moving ships at sea
🔸 Noor and Qader cruise missiles, fired from mobile launchers hidden in coastal caves, cover the entire strait from the Iranian shoreline
🔸 Iran has an estimated 5,000-6,000 naval mines — including influence mines that sit on the seabed and are nearly impossible to detect
🔸 IRGC fast attack swarm boats are designed specifically to overwhelm US destroyers in confined waters, a classified DoD war game found the US lost 16 major warships including a carrier to Iranian swarm tactics
🔸 Iran controls three fortified island outposts (Larak, Qeshm and Abu Musa) sitting directly on the shipping lanes, each with underground bunkers and missile batteries

Iran doesn't even need to win a naval battle, FPRI experts note Iran is running an "insurance blockade," it only needs to strike occasionally to make insurance uneconomical for commercial shipping. That alone shuts the strait down.

Mine clearance in a contested environment takes a minimum of 4 weeks, and the US has decommissioned most of its dedicated minesweepers in CENTCOM. In 1991 it took 40 ships four months to clear Iraqi minefields in a permissive environment.

Meanwhile the USS Gerald R. Ford, cited in the article as leading the blockade, is currently in Split, Croatia being repaired after Iranian strikes. The USS George H.W. Bush is en route as replacement.

Trump may be out-blockaded before the blockade even starts.

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https://nitter.net/DD_Geopolitics/status/2043307581540642939#m

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

🇮🇷🇷🇺 Press TV Exclusive: US destroyer transit in Strait of Hormuz aborted under Iranian pressure

A Press TV investigation says a U.S. Navy attempt to send two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday ended in failure after Iranian forces intervened.

According to the report, the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) and USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG-121) attempted a high-risk transit but were detected and intercepted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval units.

The investigation says the ships used electronic warfare tactics and false identification to appear as commercial vessels from Oman, while navigating close to shore through shallow waters. Iranian forces identified the deception early and moved to block the passage.

Press TV says Iranian cruise missiles locked onto the vessels and drones were deployed overhead, with a warning giving the ships 30 minutes to withdraw or face attack. The U.S. ships then reversed course before entering the Persian Gulf.

The report frames the operation as a failed U.S. attempt to test Iran’s readiness during a ceasefire and influence talks in Islamabad, adding that the mission did not achieve its objectives and risked escalation.