13 Apr 2026, 2:02 AM
https://x.com/imetatronink/status/2043494900289978624

This is the battle Iran WANTS to fight.

The scent of great danger is in the wind.

For the past few hours, amid a growling southwest wind (50+ mph gusts), I have
been staring out my window towards nearby Iron Mountain, contemplating the
physical realities of the United States attempting to blockade all maritime
traffic to and from Iranian ports.

Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret., an ever-present "authoritative voice" in the
imperial infosphere, offered his thoughts on the matter earlier today in a short
(5 min) interview on CNN:
https://nitter.net/stavridisj/status/2043337260909650065

The intrepid admiral prescribes two carrier strike groups, a dozen additional
destroyers, and an unspecified number of "frigates" to position themselves in
the Gulf of Oman.

There are three destroyers currently attached to CSG-3 (USS Abraham Lincoln),
and four destroyers attached to CSG-10 (USS George H. W. Bush).

There are reportedly six independent destroyers currently operating in the
Arabian Sea, and two independent destroyers in the Red Sea.

There is one littoral combat ship ("frigate") in the Arabian Sea.

So, even if the two destroyers in the Red Sea dare to run the gauntlet of the
Bab-el-Mandeb in order to join the main fleet, there would still be four more
destroyers required for the order of battle Stavridis proposes for the Gulf of
Oman.

But, importantly, Stavridis also says a successful blockade will require at
least another half-dozen US warships on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz,
in the Persian Gulf proper.

He also says the naval power of the Arab Oil Sheikdoms must be committed to the
operation.

"So you try and bottle it up on both sides," Stavridis explained, speaking of
the Strait of Hormuz.

In total, the Stavridis order of battle for the blockade consists of:
* 2 Nimitz-class aircraft carriers
* 20+ Arleigh Burke-class destroyers
* an unspecified number of "frigates"
* an unspecified number of warships from the Arab oil kingdoms
* presumably the USS Tripoli and its aircraft and Marines
* presumably the USS Boxer and its aircraft and Marines
* presumably a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division
* most of the elite American special operations forces on the planet
* American/Israeli/Arab air forces

What does Iran have to face the force Stavridis proposes?
* at least hundreds of fast attack boats carrying anti-ship missiles, torpedoes,
and short-range vertical launch air defense missiles
* hundreds of unmanned high-speed surface drones with potent warheads
* at least hundreds of anti-ship cruise missiles
* thousands of short- and medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles
* thousands of aerial attack drones of various types
* at least hundreds of surveillance drones
* numerous stealthy mini-submarines carrying potent torpedoes
* thousands of both Iranian and Russian MANPADs
* an unknown number of Iranian and Russian short-, medium-, and long-range
anti-aircraft missile systems, including the P-358 and P-359 loitering
anti-aircraft missiles, which have shown impressive capabilities
* remote-controlled mines that are anchored on the sea floor until remotely
activated
* substantial real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)
provided by Iran's Russian and Chinese friends

Assuming the US really does undertake to enforce its selective blockade of
Iranian shipping via hard-fisted military measures - including a significant
proportion of operational US naval power - it will constitute the greatest
escalation of the Iran War up to this point.

But make no mistake, this is precisely the kind of battle for which Iran has
prepared for the past quarter century.

This is the battle Iran WANTS to fight.

How it all turns out remains to be seen. But I remain convinced the American
loss threshold is extremely low, and even if just TWO destroyers are sunk or
severely damaged in coming days, it will represent an unprecedented disaster,
and add an exclamation point to the decisive strategic defeat the United States
has already incurred.

And, if an aircraft carrier is effectively disabled by a few drone or missile
strikes, it will represent an unprecedented military and geopolitical
catastrophe for the already rapidly disintegrating empire.

The scent of great danger is in the wind.