Thanks, had a look last night. Medhurst makes an interesting argument, and it doesn't surprise me that there is some intelligence & corporate manoeuvring behind the orange man's apparent flailing around. I would question whether the US is actually in fact self-sufficient in oil & gas, and/or capable of supplying the large amounts of LNG that Qatar and (currently) Australia aren't supplying. Last I heard US oil extraction peaked in the 70s and gas is only stumbling on after the large investments that went into the fracking boom and tar sands exploitation, neither of which have turned out to be particularly productive or profitable (correct me if I'm wrong). Also not mentioned is the win for Russia that occurred when sanctions were lifted on their oil, enabling them to sell at a very high price esp to India. The fact this was done rather indicates the US does depend on other suppliers in the oil & gas markets. Also Iran appeared to be gaining a far higher price for the oil & gas it allowed to be exported, though this might change if the US goes through with their secondary blockade. And then there's the problem of Venezuela's oil being extremely low grade, so while there may be lots of it, the marginal returns of exploitation are very low and vulnerable to any kind of political disruption...

Basically I'm skeptical about the narrative of the US being self-sufficient in oil & gas and not dependent on global supply chains in these and other key materials & manufactured goods. Medhurst didn't mention the awkward fact that if China's oil & gas supply is throttled that means they will be likely to axe their exports and thus the US and much of the West will completely lose access to the goods that are only produced in China nowadays. And the US is now ready to completely cut off Saudi & all the other sheikdoms despite over a century of investment & meddling in the region to ensure as much of the oil got out as possible? And provoking Iran into doing it for them? Hmmm...

It would seem to be a case of cutting your nose off to spite your face. So then we're back to the president being insane, or there being a scattering of rational actors in the corporate world that stand to profit but to the loss of nearly everyone else. We'll have to wait and see how it pans out, I guess.

cheers,
I