27 Apr 2026 · 1:23 AM
https://x.com/imetatronink/status/2048558499081363905

Lede: They will blow the whole wad on one last attempt to turn the tide of
affairs.

I believe there is a coalescing faction in Washington that is pushing to get out
of this war without further delay.

Militarily, it is a lost cause. Yes, I understand how many people think I'm nuts
for saying such a thing, but that reality is becoming more apparent to more
people with each passing day.

Even so, I am inclined to conclude that the empire is into this gambit way too
far to turn back now. Negotiation of a deal from their current posture is
unthinkable. Iran is dictating terms.

The US blockade has been a farce so far. They have interdicted a couple ships
for show. Many others have sailed on their merry way. Fact is, the US Navy
cannot execute a tactically meaningful blockade. They have, at most, 17 Arleigh
Burke-class destroyers in the Arabian Sea. They will absolutely feel compelled
to retain at least a dozen of those to afford protection to the two
carriers. That leaves five destroyers to enforce a blockade ranging over 3000+
miles of mostly sovereign waters (Pakistan and India) from the Iranian coast of
the Gulf of Oman to the Strait of Malacca.

Good luck with that - especially if the Chinese decide to start escorting
convoys with warships.

And so, back to the empire's dilemma: even if they know they can't sustain
anything more than maybe another two weeks of high-intensity air strikes, they
will almost certainly play that card in hopes of being able to improve their
negotiating position.

Of course, many people see the headlines about "three carrier strike groups"
poised to rain death and destruction on the presumptuous Iranians, and they
understandably assume it is true.

They don't understand that the USS Poopy Gerry (CVN-78) is a ship in sore need
of two years in the repair dock; a ship that is hiding out in the far northern
reaches of the Red Sea, with three destroyers assigned to protect it until it
can sneak back through the Suez Canal in the dead of night and limp back to
Norfolk.

They don't understand that the US Navy has already been struggling to sustain
the USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72) as it does figure-8s in the safe deep blue waters of
the Arabian Sea - no bases in which to rest, recuperate, and replenish. Nothing
but the increasingly scant pantries, refrigerators, and freezers of a ship that
needs to feed 5000 people three meals a day.

And now a navy that was struggling to sustain a single strike group in the
Arabian Sea will be faced with sustaining TWO of them. The USS Bush League
(CVN-77) has arrived on station, presumably not any closer than about 800 km
from the Iranian coast.

This is a fleet whose combat-ready sustainability has an extremely short
half-life.

The air force strike component in the region has not been strengthened to any
significant degree during the course of this recent "ceasefire". In fact, it has
been weakened considerably since its high-water mark in late February.

But a steady stream of C-17s has been delivering stuff of various kinds to the
theater, presumably more air defense systems, interceptors, cruise missiles, and
bombs.

The ground component remains entirely insufficient to do anything meaningful. A
single Marine Expeditionary Unit on the USS Tripoli, a Brigade Combat Team from
the 82nd Airborne Division, and several special forces units. Maybe amounts to
5000 combat effectives, but I doubt it.

Besides, I don't believe they could insert even a mere 3000 combat effectives
without some fashion of disaster ensuing. I apologize for my certainty on this
point, but in my considered opinion, anyone who believes the US can insert a
ground force into Iran - be it 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 - is bats in the belfry
crazy. It simply could not be done.

So that leaves them with an attempted reprise of the first couple weeks of this
war: stand-off air and naval missile strikes. They will blow the whole wad on
one last attempt to turn the tide of affairs.

But they won't disarm Iran.

And Iran will then strike back with unprecedented salvos from their substantial
stockpiles.

And the state of affairs for the empire will go from bad to worse, with
consequences as yet unforeseen.