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Matthew Petti 🫒 🌲 🌷 🌻 @matthew_petti
25 Apr 2026 · 3:44 PM UTC

The think tanker cliche is now "tactical success, strategic failure" but it
seems like the U.S. just straight up did not achieve a lot of its tactical goals
with Iran's missiles.

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28 Apr 2026 · 5:10 AM UTC
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW
https://nitter.net/ArmchairW/status/2048993207753622002

Very little in the Six Week War - capped off by the Desert Two debacle in
Isfahan - could be considered a "tactical success" at all.

We got stiff-armed by a well-prepared regional power, ran out of ammo, and the
Chinese are once again about to win by doing absolutely nothing.⬇️

Let's actually assess this in a rational manner, working my best guess as to
what our objectives actually were during this operation - which is in and of
itself a difficult thing to figure out given they seemed to change daily because
nobody at the Pentagon was willing to impose any kind of strategic discipline on
Trump.

So, uh, let's break this down by lines of effort because there were several.

Line of Effort 1: Strategic neutralization of Iran as a threat vector to Israel
and other US interests and forces in the Middle East

OBJ 1.1: Regime change
- FAILED. Iranian government as currently constituted ("regime") consolidated
power; "Khamenei replaced with Khamenei". No significant anti-regime protests
recorded.

OBJ 1.2: Secure US/Israeli air supremacy over central Iran
- FAILED. Coalition remained dependent on standoff weapons for strikes outside
border regions; only apparent attempt to fly massed air sorties into central
Iran resulted in lost aircraft and near-disaster. Most Coalition air assets
withdrawn to inconvenient bases far from Iran due to missile threat and reliant
on extensive tanker support to operate at low sortie rates.

OBJ 1.3: Coerce existing regime to align with US strategic interests
- FAILED. Iranian hardliners empowered by perceived victory against the United
States and Israel; more moderate factions have aligned with hardliners.

OBJ 1.4: Isolate Iran from great power support (Russia/China)
- FAILED. Russia and China continue to provide substantial economic and
military support to Iran.

Line of Effort 2: Destruction of the Iranian WMD program

OBJ 2.1: Seize Iranian enriched uranium stockpile
- FAILED. Attempted SOF raid ended in debacle.

OBJ 2.2: Destroy Iranian uranium enrichment capability
- FAILED. Iranian enrichment capability is in extremely hardened underground
facilities which do not appear to have sustained significant damage from
Coalition attacks.

OBJ 2.3: Destroy Iranian industrial pipeline to manufacture nuclear warheads
- UNKNOWN. Little data exists here outside of raw speculation.

Line of Effort 3: Destruction of Iranian means of coercion against Israel and US
interests in the Middle East

OBJ 3.1: Destroy Iranian missile force
- FAILED. Iranian ballistic, cruise, and drone capabilities very much intact.

OBJ 3.2: Destroy Iranian aerial forces
- FAILED. Iranian tactical aviation intact; transport and logistics aircraft
destroyed on the ground by Coalition forces were of limited tactical utility.

OBJ 3.3: Destroy Iranian naval forces
- FAILED. IRGCN mosquito fleet currently the dominant naval power in the
Persian Gulf; naval balance of power in the key Persian Gulf and Hormuz region
has shifted AGAINST the United States and allies.

OBJ 3.4: Destroy Iranian regional proxies
- FAILED. Iranian regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon showed resilience well
beyond that expected by analysts.

OBJ 3.5: Prevent capture of Coalition aircrew by Iran
- QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Thanks to strategically ruinous expenditures of standoff
weapons, exposure of Coalition aircraft to Iranian air defenses was minimized,
preventing Iran from taking POWs.

Line of Effort 4: Protect Israel, friendly Gulf Arab regimes, US military
forces, and broader US interests from Iranian retaliation

OBJ 4.1: Secure oil shipment through Strait of Hormuz
- FAILED. Iran secured control of the Strait of Hormuz and continues to export
oil despite attempted blockade.

OBJ 4.2: Disrupt Iranian retaliatory strikes
- FAILED. Coalition strikes did little to nothing to disrupt Iranian missile
and drone launches.

OBJ 4.3: Degrade Iranian retaliatory strikes on Coalition military assets in
theater
- FAILED. US forces withdrew to bases at operational standoff from Iran rather
than contest positions inside SRBM range, ceding influence over the
strategically critical Persian Gulf to Iran rather than risk friendly
casualties. Iranian drones and MRBMs caused painful if not decisive losses to
Coalition assets throughout the war.

OBJ 4.4: Prevent Iranian counter-value coercion against friendly Gulf Arab
regimes
- FAILED. Iran struck countervalue targets in the Arab states at will and
continues to hold them at great risk; Qatar (previously home to a massive US
presence) appears to have given Iran a massive tributary payment rather than
face further attacks.

OBJ 4.5: Prevent Iranian strikes against Coalition proxies in theater.
- FAILED. Iran effectively struck Iraqi Kurdish militias being positioned as a
proxy force, leading to the Kurds concluding a separate peace with Iran and
withdrawing from the conflict despite extensive claims in Iranian territory.

OBJ 4.6: Prevent second-order economic effects of the war in the United States
- QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Stock market apparently unable or unwilling to believe
magnitude of ongoing energy supply disruptions; jawboning and frequent false
reports by the Trump Administration of imminent peace and successful
negotiations reduced market turmoil at the cost of the long-term credibility of
the US government.

In summary: Deep failures across all lines of effort and very few objectives
accomplished.