- Carrier Limps Home

So much winning

30 Apr 2026
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/beaten-and-shopworn-trump-settles

Two interesting contradictory pathways are emerging for Trump on Iran, if we are
to trust latest MSM reports.

On one hand, new reports claim that Trump now sees the twin options of either
total withdrawal from Iran or resumption of hostilities as equally bad. The
reports claim he therefore prefers to now maintain the blockade indefinitely as
the chief operative posture toward the Islamic Republic.

But at the same time, Reuters reports the comical news that the Trump admin's
intelligence agencies are "examining" how Iran's leadership will potentially
react to Trump simply declaring a quick "victory" and pulling out of the
conflict:

JUST IN - U.S. intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would respond if
Trump were to declare a unilateral victory against Iran, and potentially pull
back from the war - Reuters

The implication here is obviously that Trump is considering doing so because he
knows he has no cards and no further real options - a true zugzwang by any
definition.

We've known since the beginning that Trump was looking for a quick, easy
out. It's the height of absurdity and surreal risibility that advanced
"intelligence agency" studies are required to determine what the IRGC's response
to this might be. The response could only be laughter, followed by triumphant
exultation: it would be seen worldwide as a decisive US military defeat.

Though many still believe Trump is employing his usual artless wiles to lull
Iran into a false sense of security before again attacking when the guard is
down. But major news just broke that appears to dim any chances of a serious US
military continuation of the conflict. It turns out that the USS Poopy Gerry -
as Imetatronink has taken to affectionately calling the ever-troubled floating
latrine - is ready to ditch the floundering conflict and head back home to await
its uncertain future:

Cont'd ...