Note the date of the post below.

Shivan Mahendrarajah @S_Mahendrarajah
22 Feb 2026 · 6:41 PM UTC
https://nitter.net/S_Mahendrarajah/status/2025642088973635968

Logistical Analysis: US Airlifts to Mideast

How bigly is the airlift to Mideast? How many tons did 250-265 flights deliver?
Bar napkin calculations

Assumptions: sources differ on totals (250 to 265 flights); using 257 average
(≈31 C-5 & ≈198 C-17 flights). Long haul flights (accounting for weight of
fuel): C-5: 100,000kg cargo load and C-17: 60,000kg. C-5 is for oversized
equipment (THAAD batteries,AN/TPY-2 radar, Patriots, etc.); C-17 is for
ordnance, jet support stuff (parts, etc.).

Total weight delivered: ≈14.58 million kg, or ≈14,580 metric tons (say,
15,000mt).

Fun fact: US military sealift ship (e.g., Bob Hope class), can carry 25,000 to
35,000mt; merchant bulk carrier, 50,000mt to 80,000mt; container ship, 50,000mt
to 150,000mt. A fraction of Bob Hope class delivered.

...

Analysis

Muwaffaq Salti is the primary launch point for the war on Iran. Hence delivery
of ≈58% of 15,000mt to MS. 70+ attack aircraft are parked at MS, incl. SEAD
aircraft.

The number of cargo flights is impressive but overall weight says otherwise. For
e.g., one THAAD battery (inclusive of 6 x 8 launchers, AN/TPY-2 radar, gear,
etc.) ≈400mt. Each "Talon" interceptor ≈900kg. One Patriot battery (inclusive of
components but exclusive of interceptors) ≈300mt. Each PAC-2 ≈900kg; PAC-3
>310kg; PAC-3 MSE >370kg. Details are classified; these are conservative
estimates from open sources.

Quantities delivered + existing stocks unlikely to sustain the "long war" that
DOD is threatening. If I can make these estimates, Iranian intel has done
better. Moreover, they have access to images and SIGINT from Chinese MILSATs and
dual-use sats; they can figure out what was unloaded, where stored,
emplacements, etc.

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