https://www.amerikanets.com/p/pr-war-ramps-up-in-ukraine

29 Jun 2026

Lede: Untangling the latest media web

Having faded largely into the constant background noise of the mainstream news
cycle in recent months, and having been overshadowed by unprecedented
geopolitical events in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine is back in the
headlines. Casual consumers of world news have been presented with a series of
startling narratives and images indicating that after years of apparent
stagnation, the war may be reaching an inflection point favoring Ukraine.

A string of pieces in The Economist gives a sense of the shift: Is Russia Being
Out-Droned? (May 5), Vladimir Putin is Losing His Grip on Russia (May 6), Russia
is Stumbling on the Battlefield (May 10), Russia's Crimean Conquest is Turning
into a Deadly Mess (June 23). In Foreign Affairs: Ukraine Turns the Tide (June
1). CNN: Russia's Winning Streak in Ukraine is Over (May 14). Anne Applebaum's
June 7th piece in The Atlantic was given the fascinating title Ukraine is Not
Losing. Russia is Not Winning.

The broad narrative is as follows: after a clear Russian advantage on the
battlefield during the past year, the Ukrainians have emerged from an
organizational restructuring significantly stronger. The AFU's desertion problem
has been largely solved. Increased drone production is giving the AFU a
numerical advantage in standoff strikes for the first time. Russian casualties
have never been higher, with losses totaling as many as 30,000 personnel a
month, and the Russians are unable to generate the recruitment rate to replace
them. The average life expectancy of a Russian soldier sent to the front lines
can be measured in minutes. Ukrainian attacks on fuel logistics both in
Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine and in Russia proper threaten the
Russian army and Russia's economy as a whole. The situation is so catastrophic
in Crimea that for the first time since the failure of the 2023 summer
offensive, Ukraine may stand a chance of retaking it. Incredibly, the Ukrainians
are achieving these victories without American support.

All of these issues are pushing a ceasefire ever closer, and the Russians may
have no choice but to give in. The domestic situation is highly unstable.
Russian soldiers are rebelling, as is the Russian bureaucracy. Dissatisfaction
with battlefield failures is sowing discontent among the Russian elite, and
Vladimir Putin's position is in more danger than ever. The imminent loss of
Crimea threatens to trigger regime change in Russia. As I write this piece, some
sources say a coup is currently underway in the Kremlin.

Shocking images from Russia itself bolster these narratives. Last week saw the
largest Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow since the war began. Hundreds of
Muscovites (who face no legal repercussions for doing so, unlike in Ukraine)
readily shared videos of a major Moscow refinery burning. Long-range Ukrainian
drones hit the cafeteria of a strategically vital semiconductor plant in
Voronezh during lunch a week ago, wiping out dozens of irreplaceable skilled
workers and shutting down a facility that manufactures components for Iskander
missiles. Gasoline shortages are rippling through Russian cities as refineries
and fuel storage are destroyed, with some stations running out completely.

With the tide turning, Belarusian president Alexandr Lukashenko quickly
capitulated to Zelensky's demands to shut down drone relays operating on
Belarusian territory, lest he risk unspecified Ukrainian offensive action.
Lukashenko was then summoned to Russia to face Putin before vanishing entirely.
His fate is unknown, but he may be in Russian captivity.

And the Ukrainians are just getting started. Zelensky announced the beginning of
a "40-day influence operation" two days ago. The explicit objective? To force
the Russians to sue for peace. Russian military insiders and bloggers are
understandably panicked.

Readers of this publication will be familiar by now with my preferred rhetorical
structure for analysis of issues like this one. First describe the mainstream
narrative in detail, then pick it apart in an attempt to glean the truth of it.
And this piece will be no different.

Cont'd