JMG looks back on his predictions from 20 years ago:

"It’s long been a source of wry amusement to me that some of my critics like to insist that I never admit it when I’m wrong. What makes that amusing to me is partly that it’s not true—I’ve discussed my mistakes tolerably often in these online essays—and partly that it’s very clear that what actually gets the goat of the critics in question is that I’m right quite a bit more often than they are. Yet it’s true enough, of course, that not all the predictions I’ve made over the twenty years of my blogging career have panned out.

In the early days of The Archdruid Report, in particular, my understanding of the political, economic, and cultural forces that are shaping the long twilight of the industrial age was much less complete than I realized at the time. While the basic shape of the future I sketched out in those first posts still stands—and in fact we’ve already slid past some of the more obvious milestones on the way to that future—my sense of the timeline involved, and the terrain to be covered on the way to that destination, was seriously flawed. It was clear to me already that we were facing a long descent. What I hadn’t yet grasped back then was just how long, uneven, and muddled the descent would be.

With that in mind, as we proceed with the reexamination of peak oil I announced two weeks ago, I want to begin with the earliest and least accurate of my attempts to summarize the whole shape of the future ahead of us..."

https://ecosophia.net/briefing-for-the-descent-revisited/