Title: "Where is the Russian oil? The truth that Moscow doesn't want to say out loud"
By: Eduardo Miguel Álvarez Estévez.
Date: July 28, 2026

Russia says we are strategic allies. They repeat it at every summit. In every statement. In every anniversary of bilateral relations. But the oil doesn't arrive. The ships don't show up. And the blackouts continue.
They asked me to investigate why. Here is what I found.
-The fact: the supply has collapsed.....
Since May 2026, the flow of Russian oil to Cuba has practically disappeared. Anatoly Kolodkin arrived in Matanzas with 730,000 barrels thanks to a humanitarian exemption that Washington granted in installments. He was the only one. The Universal, which previously transported Russian crude, stopped. The Sea Horse went to Trinidad and Tobago. The shipping companies that previously transported Russian crude to Cuba simply stopped. It wasn't an accident. It was a decision.
-The reason: the US naval blockade.....
On May 30, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a warning that resonated in all the ports in the world: any ship, of any flag, that transports Russian oil to Cuba will be sanctioned. Not just the ship. Also the shipowner, the insurer, the bank that finances the operation. Everything.
The United States did not send the Navy to intercept the ships. It wasn't necessary. It was enough to threaten the companies involved in international maritime trade. No ship is willing to risk its access to the dollar-based financial system for a cargo to Cuba. Russia knows this. That's why their ships don't arrive.
-The uncomfortable truth: Moscow is not willing to escalate.....
Here is the core of the issue. Russia has the military capacity to escort an oil tanker to Matanzas. It has nuclear submarines, frigates with hypersonic missiles, long-range bombers. But it doesn't do it. Not because it can't. But because it doesn't want to pay the political and military cost of a direct confrontation with the US Navy in the Caribbean.
For Russia, Cuba is a pawn on the geopolitical board. A pressure point against Washington. A base for strategic bombers. An anti-imperialist symbol that gives them prestige in the Global South. But it is not a vital priority. It is not Ukraine. It is not the Arctic. It is not their immediate border.
When the situation tightens, Moscow chooses its battles. And the battle for Cuban oil is not on its list of priorities.
-The silence of the Kremlin.....
The most revealing thing is not what Russia says. It is what it keeps silent. There has been no energetic denunciation in the UN Security Council. There has been no threat of retaliation against Washington. There has been no statement from the Kremlin saying "we will guarantee the supply to our strategic ally at all costs".
What there is is diplomatic silence. Meanwhile, the communiqués continue to talk about "strategic cooperation" and "fraternity among peoples". Nice words that don't ignite a kitchen or move a hospital.
-What I argue.....
Your question is fair. The answer is harsh. Russia stopped sending oil because the United States banned it from the world, and Moscow is not willing to defy that ban with facts, only with words.
Are they strategic allies? In speeches, yes. In practice, when sanctions tighten and everyone scratches their own nails, no.
I don't write this with anger. I write it with realism. Because the Cuban Revolution learned long ago that international solidarity is important, but the only guarantee of our survival is ourselves.
If Russian oil doesn't arrive, we will manage without it. As we managed in the 90s, when the Soviet Union disappeared overnight and they said Cuba would fall in weeks. We didn't fall then. We won't fall now.
Because our strength is not in Moscow. It is in us.
Homeland or Death.
We will win.
We continue in combat