https://www.councilestatemedia.uk/p/the-iran-wars-going-so-well-that
Sep 15, 2026

On Monday, the Houthis captured Greater and Lesser Hanish—two strategic islands in the Southern Red Sea, giving them effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Yemeni government forces have withdrawn from the archipelago that lies about 100 miles north of the strait. This follows last week’s loss of the port city of Mokha, the coastal town of Dhubab, and Mayun Island, which is inside the Bab el-Mandeb.

The Houthis now hold Yemen’s entire western coastline, as well as key islands. Shipping lanes pass within well within range of Houthi missiles, drones, and anti-ship weapons. Basically, no one is getting through there without their permission.

The Houthis are now positioned just 20 miles from the US military base in Djibouti, meaning that’s another US base whose days are likely numbered. It’s all a bit embarrassing really.

Fighting in Yemen restarted in early September after a shaky four-year truce—and Houthi gains over the last two weeks have been dramatic. The reason for that is simple—the Yemeni government is a Saudi-aligned dictatorship that does not have the support of its own people. One side is motivated to fight and the other side is not.

It’s not just the Yemeni dictators who are in trouble here—it’s the Saudis. The Kingdom had shifted most of its oil exports to Red Sea pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This was never an ideal solution because moving oil through those pipes is slow.

Now that problem is even bigger because the Houthis are bombing the pipelines and related targets. Those sites include the Jazan refinery and tank farms, the Aramco facilities in Abha and Najran, Yanbu oil installations, and even the King Khalid Air Base. As a result of these attacks, oil prices have surged above $105 a barrel.

Amusingly, the US is not coming to the Saudis’ rescue because American security guarantees mean absolutely nothing. The US sacrifices its own troops for Israel, so it’s certainly happy sacrificing Saudis. But it probably couldn’t do anything even if it wanted to. It’s running dangerously low on supplies.

The Saudis spent years supporting the Yemeni government after launching its 2015 “intervention”—they were assisted by the US and UK. To make matters worse, our public had little or no idea we were involved in a brutal war that had left an estimated 377,000 dead by the end of 2021. Gaza is not the only recent genocide we’ve been involved in.

Laughably, Andy Burnham is said to be weighing up further military support for the Yemeni government. Aside from the fact this would be a moral abomination, what can he even do? The US launched 1,000 airstrikes against the Houthis in 2025 alone, but it ultimately made little difference. Heavy bombardment doesn’t break their will, and if anything has the opposite effect.

The Houthis have a fighting force of about 300,000 and do not have a centralised command structure, being composed of tribes that share the same ideological goals. Because they are not a conventional military, they are incredibly hard to defeat. If they’re facing a tough time, they can simply hide away in the mountains, regroup and come back stronger.

As well as smuggling in weapons from abroad, the Houthis have developed their own domestic supply line of missiles and drones, meaning they can replenish stocks quickly. Some of their missiles have a range of 2,000km so we’re not exactly dealing with desert savages here. These people are smart and determined.

It seems inevitable that the Yemeni dictatorship will soon fall. It will be interesting to see if that has a domino effect. The people of the region are ruled by tyrants who are propped up by the West to protect Israel. They may well be inspired to rise up. If they do, it will not just be the end of western influence in the region. It will be the end of Israel.

US influence is coming to an end regardless of what happens with these dictatorships. New alliances are emerging. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have formed a new defence pact. At the moment though, that pact seems largely symbolic.

There have been claims that Pakistan is weighing up military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia, but the Pakistanis have made it clear this isn’t gonna happen. Pakistan has troops stationed in Saudi Arabia, but they will not be entering Yemen.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said they would only intervene if the fighting spilled over into Saudi Arabia. The Foreign Office then said no military response is under discussion and the pact is “defensive.”

Islamabad is asking Tehran to restrain the Houthis, saying it doesn’t want to fight Iran’s allies. Clearly, the power dynamics in the region are shifting. Middle Eastern countries are turning to China for weapons and support that the Americans can’t provide. Those destroyed US military bases aren’t coming back.

The only question is will these royal families cling to power without the support of the US and their own people?

Needless to say the stakes are high and that’s why we are in an incredibly fragile period. While the US could limp away and accept a humiliating defeat, it could still do something crazy. Or rather, Israel could blackmail Trump into doing something crazy. Do not rule out a tactical nuclear strike.

Given the risks, the Iranian strategy to escalate might seem foolish, but it actually makes perfect sense. Showing restraint got the Iranians nowhere and while it doesn’t have a nuclear deterrent, it certainly has the ability to cause catastrophic harm.

US missile and drone defences are all but gone and the mid-terms are approaching. Inflicting more pain and humiliation on Trump will hurt him in those elections. That represents the best chance of bringing this ridiculous war to an end.