James Hansen
23 July 2026

Abstract:

Emerging climate extremes should draw public attention to human-caused climate change. We expect unusual sea surface temperature (SST) and global warming the rest of this year to make 2026 hotter than 2024, despite 2024 being a peak El Nino year, while 2026 is only the lead-in year of an emerging El Nino. Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade. These two factors are driving an unusual increase in global SSTs with major consequences.

...
For several reasons, it is hard for people to realize how serious the climate threat is and to take appropriate, timely actions. First, climate change is delayed by the thermal inertia of the ocean, which means that additional change is in the pipeline before the public sees large climate impacts. Second, most emissions driving climate change result from essential activities such as energy production and agriculture. Fossil fuels, for example, have raised living standards, and replacing that infrastructure takes time. Third, there are special interests that resist change and spread disinformation...


https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/beware-media-hype-its-not-the-el