https://no01.substack.com/p/lets-move
Sep 30, 2026

As a thanks to my paid subscribers they received this article yesterday. After a day, it opens up for everybody else.

On a Sunday in September 2008, after ninety-four years being on Wall Street, Merrill Lynch stopped being Merrill Lynch. They were sold for about $50 billion to BofA over a single weekend.

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy the next morning.

And… as they say… the rest is history.

The firm left the “Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate” index behind. That’s short for “MOVE”.

This index is what VIX is for stocks. A “bond market fear gauge”.

(By the way, this ML after BofA means Merrill Lynch, that and the history print is all that survived of the name.)
MOVE, 1D

It’s at 109.186 as I’m writing this. Up from 96 last Friday, and the high 70s the week before that.

The low was in at around 60 on January 26. And one month later (just before USrael started bombing Iran), it was sitting at 62ish. The next day it jumped to 73 (an 18% move). Crude went from 70 to 119, and gold and silver and bonds were thrown out of the window because who needs protection, right?
Strait to Brrrrrrr....
Strait to Brrrrrrr....
No1
·
12 Mar
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But the MOVE kept climbing until it topped out around 115 (an 85% move). Again a month later (March 26).

That was then, but now is now.

If there’s anything, the jump that started last Wednesday (September 23 - again nearly on the dot a few months later?!), is the same shape. Even steeper if anything.

It jumped 21% in a single session (with the week up 19%). Since one week ago, it sprung up 40%. I repeat: 40% in a week.

In February, a fricking shooting war started heating up the Middle East.

Right now? … crickets…

And we’re already halfway through the biggest disruption to oil since the plandemic.

Little segue: For anyone who doesn’t know the thing: the MOVE is (as I said above) the VIX for Treasuries. It tracks what options traders charge to insure against big swings in the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year yields over the next month. It doesn’t care if it goes up or down. As long as it MOVEs (yea yeah, I had to do it!).

It’s a smoke detector, basically. It’s pretty reliable to tell you that the house is smoking, after the fact, but don’t bother asking which room is (was) on fire.

Usually it goes off with the fire, and at best, it beats the stock market by a few days.

In February there were some indications that someone knew something was brewing a few days before the war started.

Of course, somebody always knows, but you need to realise that the US Treasury market is (including its derivatives) about a $200 trillion market. You won’t move it with a few millions.

What I’m trying to say here today is that after a month of war, a closed strait and $119 crude, the MOVE went from 73 to 115. This time it’s already at 110, and I have no idea (but I will speculate) what’s going on.

I do however strongly believe that whoever is buying insurance now, knows it’s going to be a LOT bigger than February...

Whatever “it” is, No1 knows.

So far this move in MOVE (yeah yeah) is doing exactly what it did in February. Ctd....